Against a backdrop of persistently strong freight rates and demand performance that continues to exceed expectations, analysts believe Maersk could raise its full-year 2026 earnings guidance for a third time when it releases its third-quarter results.
Against a backdrop of persistently strong freight rates and demand performance that continues to exceed expectations, analysts believe Maersk could raise its full-year 2026 earnings guidance for a third time when it releases its third-quarter results.
Alex Irving, analyst at German investment bank Bernstein, stated following a conversation with Maersk that current freight rate performance could prompt the carrier to revise its full-year outlook upward once again at the third-quarter results release. In analysis published on Friday, Irving noted that the continued strength of freight rates makes another upward revision at the third-quarter stage highly probable.
Maersk has already raised its full-year earnings guidance twice this summer. In mid-August, following the release of strong second-quarter results, the company lifted its 2026 full-year guidance once more, with full-year EBITDA now projected to fall between USD 10.5 billion and USD 12.5 billion - a substantial increase from the USD 4.5 billion to USD 7.0 billion range forecast at the start of the year. Irving noted that market consensus currently anticipates full-year EBITDA of approximately USD 12.0 billion to USD 13.0 billion, a level that may already be approaching Maersk's actual performance trajectory.
Despite a continued rise in global container vessel order volumes - with future capacity growth remaining a key concern across the industry - near-term market performance has continued to surpass expectations. Bernstein noted that Maersk is still encountering delays at certain ports in China. Although port pressure has eased relative to the second quarter, congestion and delays continue to provide structural support to market freight rates. At the same time, demand has remained robust even as energy prices hold at elevated levels.
Irving observed that the resilience of demand in the face of higher energy prices represents a somewhat unexpected development, yet one that constitutes a clear positive for Maersk. Bernstein noted in its analysis that it remains to be seen whether this level of demand intensity can be sustained through the winter months; for the present, however, strong demand continues to support unit revenue levels.
Irving is not the first analyst to advance the view that Maersk may raise its earnings outlook once more. As early as late August, several analysts had already concluded that prevailing market trends were pointing toward that possibility. Danish business media outlet Finans cited Haider Anjum, Senior Analyst at Jyske Bank, as saying that volume, freight rate, and earnings performance all supported a reading of "unexpectedly strong" results for Maersk - leading the bank to lean toward the view that another upward revision was likely. Anjum noted that the trajectory of 2026 to date is demonstrating performance meaningfully ahead of earlier projections.
Nevertheless, as newbuild order volumes across the industry continue to accumulate, medium-to-long-term capacity growth remains one of the primary risk factors commanding market attention.
