Iran has expanded its effective maritime control area around the Strait of Hormuz, leading to new concerns in global maritime trade and energy markets.

According to reports from Iran-linked media outlets cited by analysts, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy now defines the Strait of Hormuz as a 'broad operational area' extending between Jask in eastern Iran and Siri Island in the west. Assessments published by the Iran-based Fars and Tasnim news agencies suggest that the operational area has expanded from approximately 20-30 nautical miles to 200-300 nautical miles in the approaches to Hormuz.

This development follows a new map of a control zone released by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards earlier this month, which covers a large portion of the Gulf of Oman facing the United Arab Emirates. It is noted that this situation increases uncertainty for commercial vessels entering and exiting the Arabian Gulf.

The maritime analysis platform Windward pointed out that security risks in the region have further escalated. In its latest analysis, the platform reported a significant movement of over 200 small vessels detected in the northern corridor of Hormuz.

It was noted that these vessels clustered off the southeastern coast of Qeshm Island and along the central line of the corridor. During the same period, it was expressed that large commercial vessels in the region remained largely inactive, and commercial flow had nearly come to a halt.

Supply Chain Pressures Rising Again

Increasing geopolitical tensions are also reflected in global economic indicators. The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has recorded consecutive increases over the past three months. The sharp rise observed in April brought the index to its highest level in nearly four years.

On the other hand, the Global Supply Chain Stress Index, based on World Bank data, is reportedly approaching the crisis levels seen during the pandemic.

It is emphasized that the geopolitical impacts are not limited to maritime transportation. According to Reuters, Iraq and Pakistan have signed new agreements with Iran regarding the shipment of oil and liquefied natural gas from the Gulf. This development is interpreted as Tehran increasing its influence over regional energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Dry Bulk Shipping at a Standstill

One of the sectors most severely affected by the crisis has been dry bulk shipping. Shipping company Ursa Shipbrokers announced that the flow of dry bulk cargo loaded from the west of the Strait of Hormuz and directed out of the Persian Gulf has 'almost completely stopped' as of the 18th week of 2026.

According to analyses based on the company's vessel tracking data, the total export volume during the week of April 27 to May 3 remained at only 47,000 tons. This figure is significantly below the average volume of 2.2 million tons observed in the same weeks from 2016 to 2025.

According to Ursa's data, since the onset of the Iran-centered conflict on February 28, total dry bulk shipments to destinations east of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf have been limited to approximately 2.6 million tons.

The company also warned that some movements may not be fully tracked due to GPS signal interference, AIS failures, and interrupted communications, while noting that the overall trend indicates a historically significant contraction in regional bulk exports.

The Persian Gulf is deemed critical for the export of commodities such as limestone, aggregates, sulfur, and urea. According to Ursa's estimates, total dry bulk volumes between the 9th and 18th weeks of the year showed an 88% decrease compared to both annual figures and historical averages, indicating a loss of approximately 19 million tons of cargo.

Experts indicate that the recent developments have strengthened concerns that the Strait of Hormuz crisis has evolved from being merely a regional security issue into a long-term structural risk for global maritime trade and supply chains.

Source: SeaNews Türkiye