North American intermodal rail anticipates growth from new routes and faster transit times in 2026 amid merger discussions between UP and NS.
North American intermodal rail is poised for growth in 2026, driven by new routes and faster transit times, even as regulators evaluate the proposed merger between Union Pacific (UP) and Norfolk Southern (NS), according to the New York's Journal of Commerce.
The proposed US$85 billion merger would establish the first single-line transcontinental railroad. Announced in July 2025, this deal prompted rivals BNSF and CSX to introduce coast-to-coast lanes and enhance their services. Concurrently, UP and NS initiated joint operations connecting the West Coast, Mexico, and Texas with Louisville, thereby increasing their market share at the expense of BNSF and JB Hunt.
According to the Intermodal Association of North America, domestic intermodal volumes increased by 3.5 percent year-on-year through October. Shippers anticipate mostly stable contract rates in early 2026, with potential increases on outbound West Coast lanes. JB Hunt may reduce prices to regain market share, while Hub Group and Swift Intermodal are competing for slots on NS trains.
Additional single-line services from BNSF and CSX to the Northeast are expected to commence when double-stacking through Baltimore begins in the spring. Former Surface Transportation Board chairman Daniel Elliott noted that regulators seem inclined to approve the UP-NS merger, citing political alignment under President Donald Trump.
However, analysts warn that sustained growth in intermodal rail will depend on a recovery in the truckload market. With road capacity remaining abundant, intermodal expansion is likely to be modest until there is a strengthening in US manufacturing and construction activity.
