THE once firm link between world GDP and global container throughput has been broken as economic growth rates slow faster at a faster rate than international box volumes...
Global box volume to GDP relationship uncouples as fundamentals change THE once firm link between world GDP and global container throughput has been broken as economic growth rates slow faster at a faster rate than international box volumes, reports Alphaliner.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its outlook for the world economy in 2013, as fiscal spending cuts are expected to slow US growth and keep the EU in recession, said the report.
"Although container port volumes have grown three and four times global GDP growth in the period up to 2005, the GDP multiplier has been reduced to two times since then," said the report.
"In 2012, the multiplier dropped further to only 1.5 times, with global throughput growth reaching an estimated 4.6 per cent compared to GDP growth of 3.2 per cent," said the report.
World container volume is expected to grow by five per cent this year and 5.5 per cent next, based on Alphaliner estimates, with the lower GDP multiplier expected to remain in place.
Slower Chinese container volume growth, which has driven much of the global demand in the last two decades, is the main reason for the lower growth forecasts, said the report.
The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook in April reduced its forecast for global GDP growth to 3.3 per cent this year, down from its January forecast of 3.5 per cent, while retaining its prediction of four per cent growth in 2014.
The lower growth forecast could have a significant impact on global container demand, as the previous assumption of a stable multiplier relationship between growth of container throughput and GDP growth has broken down in recent years, said the report.
