Geopolitical disruptions are reshaping shipping, with shadow fleets and sanctions intensifying, warns Lloyd's List at the HACC-NACC conference.
Geopolitical disruption is becoming the norm in global shipping, with shadow fleets, sanctions, and security concerns poised to intensify, reports London's Lloyd's List.
Speakers at the HACC-NACC conference in New York warned that shipping is increasingly being used as a geopolitical lever. Brian Green of International Registries stated that threats have evolved dramatically, while naval analyst Joshua Tallis cautioned that the industry is only 'in the middle of the story.'
Recent US actions include the capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and the seizure of eight tankers. Analysts said this marks a paradigm shift, with Washington and Brussels now wielding maritime sanctions as a tool of foreign policy.
Venezuelan crude once carried by shadow tankers is expected to shift to compliant tonnage, leaving Russia and Iran as the main outlets for the shadow fleet. EU and UK sanctions under consideration could further isolate Russian oil, increasing demand for Russian-flagged vessels.
Mr. Tallis warned of a bifurcated maritime system, with Western and non-Western fleets insulated from each other. He said this dynamic could lower the threshold for confrontation. False-flagged tankers have already been seized by the US, France, and India.
State actors' limited understanding of commercial shipping adds to volatility. US strikes on Houthis did not restore Red Sea traffic due to high insurance costs, while longer routes eased containership overcapacity but were not factored into military planning.
Iran and the Strait of Hormuz remain potential flashpoints. Mr. Tallis stated that the US Navy's priority is winning wars, not protecting commercial operators, leaving gaps in contingency planning for maritime trade.
Tensions with China are another concern. US port fees briefly imposed on Chinese ships in 2025 reflected industrial policy tied to conflict risks. Mr. Tallis noted that China has demonstrated the ability to load containerships with portable weapon systems, raising fears that container shipping could be the next sector hit by security threats.
Mr. Green emphasized that Chinese commercial vessels now carry missile launchers, underscoring the strategic risks. 'Buckle up and maintain due diligence, because this is going to be a wild five years,' he told the conference.
