Executives warn of a fragile liner shipping outlook for 2026, citing oversupply, tariffs, and regulatory challenges, reports Splash 247.
Executives warn that liner shipping faces a fragile outlook as it heads into 2026, with oversupply, tariffs, and regulatory uncertainty weighing heavily on prospects, according to reports from Singapore's Splash 247.
The year began with carriers avoiding the Red Sea despite assurances from Houthi forces, opting instead to divert via Africa, which absorbed 10 percent of Asia-Europe capacity. The EU's emissions trading scheme has taken effect, while the Fuel EU Maritime rules loom on the horizon. Although Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd launched their Gemini Alliance, demand has not increased as anticipated.
Researchers from University College London have indicated that new ships must operate on clean fuels, necessitating retrofits or the scrapping of vessels built since 2016. In 2025, carriers ordered nearly 500 ships, including Evergreen's ten 24,000-TEU giants, scheduled for delivery starting in 2027.
US policy has added to the volatility in the market. Tariffs on China fluctuated dramatically, swinging from 55 percent to 140 percent before stabilizing at 30 percent. This has caused freight rates on Shanghai-US west coast routes to experience significant fluctuations, plunging to $1,431 in October before rebounding to $2,958 in November.
The Port of Los Angeles saw throughput peak at 1.02 million TEU in July, only to fall to 0.85 million TEU by October. Director Gene Seroka noted that China's share of cargo has dropped from 80 percent in 2018 to 45 percent by mid-2025.
According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), global trade is projected to exceed $35 trillion in 2025, reflecting a seven percent increase. Growth has been strongest in Asia and Africa, while Europe's exports have risen by six percent. US tariff policy has contributed to a narrowing of the trade deficit and encouraged nearshoring.
The containership order book remains a significant concern. Deliveries of 242 ships have added 2.04 million TEU, raising the fleet total to 31 million TEU. Despite carriers cutting capacity, slowing steaming, and blanking sailings, average Freightos rates have fallen by 55 percent to $1,934 by December.
Rates for Shanghai-Los Angeles have dropped 67 percent to $1,964, while Shanghai-Rotterdam fell 56 percent to $2,449, and Shanghai-Med declined 41 percent to $3,342. Rates for Europe-North America have decreased by 32 percent to $1,537. Executives caution that confused policies and the costly energy transition could further deepen the fragility of the sector.
