Asian carriers are ramping up Red Sea transits, restoring Suez Canal operations and reshaping Asia-Europe shipping dynamics.
The shift back to Red Sea transits is accelerating, with more Asian carriers restoring operations via the Suez Canal. Following moves by Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, and COSCO Shipping, the Premier Alliance - consisting of ONE, HMM, and Yang Ming - is preparing to resume Southeast Asia-North Europe service through the Suez Canal starting in October. The 'ONE CONTINUITY' (8,110 TEU) will be the first vessel in this reinstated service, departing Laem Chabang on 17 October. However, execution remains dependent on factors like security risks and vessel scheduling.
COSCO Shipping's 'OOCL PORTUGAL' recently completed a Suez transit on 16 September, marking a milestone for Red Sea operations. Suez Canal Authority data shows container vessel net tonnage reached 72.1 million tonnes from January to August 2026, a 54.2% increase compared to the same period in 2025.
Despite these developments, the resumption of Red Sea routing remains cautious. Data shows directional asymmetry, with backhaul Europe-to-Asia voyages recovering faster than Asia-to-Europe mainhaul services. In September, only 13-25% of Asia-Europe mainhaul capacity passed through the Red Sea, compared to 25-47% for backhaul voyages. Mediterranean-Asia capacity stood at 57%, significantly higher than the 27% on North Europe-Asia routes.
This cautious approach reflects operational logic. Backhaul voyages, carrying lighter loads, allow quicker returns to Asia while reducing fuel consumption. By contrast, westbound mainhaul voyages carrying higher-value cargo undergo stricter security assessments. For carriers, the return to Suez shortens transit times, reduces fuel costs, and improves vessel turnaround cycles, addressing capacity shortages caused by Cape diversions and port congestion.
The return of Red Sea transits has mixed implications. Shippers may enjoy shorter transit times and lower costs, while carriers face challenges. Cape diversions have constrained Asia-Europe trade capacity and supported freight rates for two years. As vessels return to Suez, increased capacity could intensify downward pressure on rates. However, carriers continuing Cape routes risk competitive disadvantages due to longer transit times and reduced reliability.
Security remains a critical factor. While some carriers resume Suez operations, Red Sea conditions, particularly around the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, are still volatile. The phased approach by major carriers reflects caution. The key question is whether more carriers will commit to Red Sea routing and expand mainhaul services, potentially reshaping freight rates and capacity dynamics in the Asia-Europe market.
