Asia-Europe container spot rates have rebounded in October, driven by strong European demand despite increased capacity from the Red Sea route.
Spot rates on Asia-Europe trades have rebounded, ending a slide that began in July. Strong European demand has outweighed the extra capacity released by vessels returning to the Red Sea and Suez Canal route.
Asia-to-Europe container spot rates fell steadily from July before bottoming out at the end of September. Since then, rates have edged up. The recovery held through China's Golden Week holiday pause and continued as carriers accelerated their return to the shorter Red Sea and Suez Canal route.
According to Xeneta data, spot rates from the Far East to North Europe rose 6.8% week-on-week to $3,698 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU). Rates from the Far East to the Mediterranean climbed 5.8% to $4,442 per FEU.
The rise comes as the shorter Red Sea and Suez Canal route returns capacity to the market and eases earlier shortages. In theory, that extra capacity should lower rates. The market is doing the opposite.
"This is a conundrum because the release of capacity into the global fleet should ease pressure on rates, but we are seeing the opposite. Spot rates are still up 67% into North Europe and 33% into the Mediterranean compared to pre-Hormuz crisis on 28 February," said Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta.
Sand said that part of the answer lies in strong demand for goods into Europe. Volumes increased 12.2% in the first seven months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.
"Disruption such as the Middle East conflict brings volatility and sudden shocks, but demand is a powerful upward force for rates. If demand is not there, then rates will collapse, but it has been strong enough on the European fronthauls to prevent this, even as Red Sea capacity returns," said Sand.
Carriers are also managing supply to support pricing. Drewry Shipping Consultants reported that, despite higher demand, carriers have increased blank sailings on the trade. A blank sailing is a scheduled voyage that a carrier cancels. Cancellations rose from two last week to eight over the coming week.
"Carriers are reducing capacity via blank sailings to put pressure on freight rates upwards," Drewry noted in its weekly rate report.
Port congestion in China has also eased. Drewry said vessel delays at Shanghai have more than halved, with average waiting times falling from 97 hours to 42 hours over the week.
For cargo owners, firmer rates and tighter scheduled capacity make the outlook harder to read. Fewer sailings can affect space availability and transit reliability even as port delays improve. This puts greater weight on closely monitoring rate movements and carrier schedules heading into the final weeks of the year.
On the Transpacific, headhaul spot rates from Asia to the US remain high but have flattened. Rates rose just 0.2% week-on-week to both the US West Coast and East Coast.
Even so, spot rates stand at $8,311 per FEU to the West Coast and $11,525 per FEU to the East Coast. Those levels are up 342% and 335% since February, respectively.
Demand growth on the Pacific appears to have leveled off, and rates have followed. Carriers have still canceled two more sailings this week, down from six blank sailings the previous week.
"The East-West container freight market remains uncertain. Security risks and attacks on ships continue to affect vessel movements through the Gulf," said Drewry. The consultancy added, "Transpacific rates continue to receive support from US import demand, while carriers are attempting to sustain Asia-Europe rates through capacity management and surcharges."