Air Freight Markets Surge as Capacity Returns Post-Peak

Global air freight markets saw a sharp rebound in early January after year-end declines, with volumes and rates recovering strongly as capacity returned to service, reports HKTDC Research.

Average east-west spot rates strengthened into December due to peak-season demand, particularly on Asia-US and Asia-Europe lanes. Although rates eased at year-end, they remained slightly ahead of the same point last year, underscoring seasonal adjustment rather than structural weakness.

Outbound Asia rates rose firmly in December, supported by e-commerce flows. Asia-Europe pricing proved more resilient than Asia-US, reflecting stronger demand from European consumers. Rates closed the year marginally below December 2024 levels, indicating a solid but less aggressive peak.

Global tonnages rose more than 25 percent week on week in the first full week of January, reversing late-December declines. Chargeable weight was around five percent higher than a year earlier, signaling a stronger start to 2026. The rebound was broad-based across all regions except Africa, with Asia Pacific leading in absolute terms.

Freighter operators reinstated services cut after the peak, lifting capacity more than 15 percent week on week in early January. Overall global capacity remained about seven percent below mid-December levels, but supply is returning quickly.

Asia Pacific origins led year-on-year growth, up about eight percent. Asia-US volumes rose 10 percent, driven by Southeast Asia, while China and Hong Kong flows were flat. Asia-Europe volumes grew 15 percent, supported by China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Thailand, highlighting Europe's growing role as a destination market.

Beyond Asia, the Middle East and South Asia posted double-digit growth on Europe- and US-bound lanes entering 2026. HKTDC Research stated that proactive planning and close carrier partnerships remain key to securing lift and service predictability.