INTERNATIONAL accountancy firm and shipping industry consultant Moore
Stephens says the shipping sector confidence at year-end has picked up
despite fears of overtonnage and the eurozone crisis but it is still at
its lowest rating since the survey was launched in 2008.
By end of third quarter average confidence came in at 5.4, up from August against a scale where 1 is low and 10 is high. Those most confident were managers remaining unchanged at 5.6 with owners increasing from 5.1 to 5.3 and brokers from 5.1 to 5.2, charterers dropped marginally from 5.0 to 4.9.
Geographically the region most reduced in confidence is Europe from a high of 6.6 in 2008, which it retained until August 2010. North American and Asia increased with confidence: Asia from 5.7 to 5.8 and North America a bigger leap of faith at 5.8 from 5.1.
One respondent said the outcome of the European financial crisis "will decide how things turn out for shipping in general and for shipowners in particular.
Writing in the latest issue of Bottom Line, the firm's shipping newsletter, Richard Greiner shipping partner at Moore Stephens' Shipping Industry Group, said:
"It says a great deal for the resilience of the shipping industry that, despite the problems facing the sector, and notwithstanding the acute difficulties bedevilling the world economy, our survey showed a small increase in confidence.
"Like a boxer who refuses to lie down, shipping is fighting to ride the punches and to bounce back off the ropes. There was even an increased expectation that respondents would be making a major investment over the coming 12 months," and in the face of operating costs set to rise by 3.7 per cent into 2012.
"Overtonnaging is still the elephant in the room", he said and it will remain so for some time unless sensible renegotiation and resourceful financing can be used in the short term, said Mr Greiner.
Freight rates are expected to fall because decreased demand and over supply of tonnage globally, according to the survey, the first since February 2009 when those expecting decline in rates was higher than rate increases. Respondents who thought rates would rise numbered 23 per cent (28 per cent previously) and 31 per cent for rates dropping.
By end of third quarter average confidence came in at 5.4, up from August against a scale where 1 is low and 10 is high. Those most confident were managers remaining unchanged at 5.6 with owners increasing from 5.1 to 5.3 and brokers from 5.1 to 5.2, charterers dropped marginally from 5.0 to 4.9.
Geographically the region most reduced in confidence is Europe from a high of 6.6 in 2008, which it retained until August 2010. North American and Asia increased with confidence: Asia from 5.7 to 5.8 and North America a bigger leap of faith at 5.8 from 5.1.
One respondent said the outcome of the European financial crisis "will decide how things turn out for shipping in general and for shipowners in particular.
Writing in the latest issue of Bottom Line, the firm's shipping newsletter, Richard Greiner shipping partner at Moore Stephens' Shipping Industry Group, said:
"It says a great deal for the resilience of the shipping industry that, despite the problems facing the sector, and notwithstanding the acute difficulties bedevilling the world economy, our survey showed a small increase in confidence.
"Like a boxer who refuses to lie down, shipping is fighting to ride the punches and to bounce back off the ropes. There was even an increased expectation that respondents would be making a major investment over the coming 12 months," and in the face of operating costs set to rise by 3.7 per cent into 2012.
"Overtonnaging is still the elephant in the room", he said and it will remain so for some time unless sensible renegotiation and resourceful financing can be used in the short term, said Mr Greiner.
Freight rates are expected to fall because decreased demand and over supply of tonnage globally, according to the survey, the first since February 2009 when those expecting decline in rates was higher than rate increases. Respondents who thought rates would rise numbered 23 per cent (28 per cent previously) and 31 per cent for rates dropping.