AUSTRALIA's box trade is forecast to grow by 5.1 per cent a year, from 7.2 million TEU in 2012-13 to 19.4 million TEU in 2032-33 - or triple in 20 years, says Australia's federal Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE).
Driven by the "continuing positive economic outlook for Australia and its major trading partners", the box trade is expected to rise by 6.2 per cent annually in Brisbane, 4.5 per cent in Sydney, 4.8 per cent in Melbourne, 5.4 per cent in Adelaide, 5.8 per cent in Fremantle and 5.1 per cent across all other ports.
By 2032-33, the total volume of containerised trade is projected to reach to 3.6 million TEU in Brisbane, 5.2 million TEU in Sydney, 6.4 million TEU in Melbourne, one million TEU in Adelaide, 2.1 million TEU in Fremantle and 1.2 million TEU across all other ports, reported Brisbane's Australasian Transport News (ATN).
Over the next 20 years, real GDP is forecast to grow by an annual average of 2.7 per cent a year for Australia, 2.5 per cent a year across the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 1.3 per cent a year in Japan, 2.3 per cent a year for the US and 6.7 per cent a year for China.
"This is below average trend growth experienced in Australia, USA and China and slightly above average trend growth experienced across all OECD countries and Japan over the past two decades," BITRE's third forecast in eight years states.
"Consequently, these assumptions will broadly act to lower containerised and non-containerised import volume growth through Australian ports compared to the historical trend."
Thus the Port of Melbourne, which has increased by 5.9 per cent a year over the last 14 years, is projected to increase by 4.8 per cent a year over the next 20 years to 6.4 million TEU in 2032-33.
"The slightly lower rate of growth projected over the forecast period is due to the lower import growth forecast resulting from projected lower future economic growth in Australia and the assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar against the US dollar," BITRE says.
BITRE's forecasts are based on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, OECD and the International Monetary Fund, with macroeconomic assumptions sourced from Deloitte Access Economics.
PORTS
11 January 2015 - 20:12
Oz's box trade to triple over 20 years to 19.4 million TEU: BITRE
AUSTRALIA's box trade is forecast to grow by 5.1 per cent a year, from 7.2 million TEU in 2012-13 to 19.4 million TEU in 2032-33 - or triple in 20 years, says Australia's federal Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE).
PORTS
11 January 2015 - 20:12
Oz's box trade to triple over 20 years to 19.4 million TEU: BITRE
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