Despite relentless international military efforts, the Houthis are solidifying their control in the Red Sea, causing a dramatic decline in merchant shipping traffic.
Houthis Tighten Grip on Red Sea Trade Amid Global Military Pressure
December 4, 2024 – 9:05 AM Despite relentless international military efforts, the Houthis are solidifying their control in the Red Sea, causing a dramatic decline in merchant shipping traffic. A new report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) warns that operations by Western-led coalitions have done little to weaken the rebel group's growing influence.
International Efforts Falling Short
Operations such as Prosperity Guardian, Poseidon Archer, and EUNAVFOR Aspides have so far only managed to temporarily disrupt Houthi activities. The IISS report, Navigating Troubled Waters: The Houthis' Campaign in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, outlines the limited effectiveness of airstrikes and naval missions in containing the group.
Notable military actions this year included:
US Navy destroyers intercepting Houthi missiles and drones targeting commercial ships in the Gulf of Aden. RAF Typhoon jets conducting precision strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen. HMS Diamond neutralizing nine drones and a missile during her deployment in the Red Sea. A French destroyer, under Operation Aspides, shooting down drones in the southern Red Sea.
Yet, these efforts have not prevented a sharp decline in Red Sea trade. Merchant vessel transits have dropped by roughly 50% since November 2023, underscoring the growing threat posed by the Houthis.
The Houthis: A Resilient Force
The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, emerged in Yemen’s Sa’dah province in the 1990s and rose to prominence after seizing the capital, Sana’a, in 2014. Backed by Iran, the group has amassed an arsenal of advanced weaponry, including ballistic missiles, drones, and naval mines.
Since the Gaza conflict began in October, the Houthis have intensified their operations in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, targeting merchant ships and launching sophisticated drone and missile attacks.
Challenges in Countering the Houthis
The IISS report highlights several reasons for the Houthis’ resilience despite sustained international pressure:
Geographic Advantage Yemen's rugged terrain allows the Houthis to conceal personnel and weapons, complicating international military efforts. Iranian Support Despite a UN arms embargo, the group continues to receive Iranian-designed weapons and components via maritime smuggling routes. Control of key Red Sea ports like Hudaydah and Salif remains critical to their operations. Evolving Tactics The Houthis have refined their strategies, using low-cost, high-impact weapons like drones and unmanned surface vessels to strain the expensive defensive systems of their adversaries. Limited Ground Operations International efforts are primarily naval, lacking the ground components needed to neutralize Houthi strongholds and supply chains. Yemen’s challenging terrain further complicates these efforts.
Operation Prosperity Guardian: A Double-Edged Sword
Launched to safeguard Red Sea trade routes, Operation Prosperity Guardian involves patrolling chokepoints, escorting merchant vessels, and responding to Houthi attacks. While it has prevented loss of civilian lives, it has not restored pre-2023 levels of trade or deterred Houthi aggression.
The Path Ahead
The IISS report concludes that while international pressure has temporarily weakened the Houthis’ capabilities, it has failed to address the root causes of their resilience. A more comprehensive strategy, potentially including ground operations and enhanced regional cooperation, may be required to mitigate the growing threat to Red Sea trade and security.
As the situation unfolds, global shipping and military forces face mounting challenges in safeguarding one of the world's most vital trade routes. The question remains: how long can the Houthis maintain their stranglehold on the Red Sea?
