WORLD trade confidence continues to slide in the face of poor global economic indicators, according to surveys and industry forecasts, reports Lloyd's Loading List.
The Asian Development Bank predicts that developing Asia's 45 economies would grow just 5.8 per cent in 2015 and six per cent in 2016 - down from the 6.3 per cent it predicted in March, and would be slowest growth rate since 2001.
Earlier today a preliminary Caixin China manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 47 in September, its lowest recording in some six and half years. The decline was led by weak 'new order" and 'new export orders" sub-indexes.
The Caixin PMI's decline was supported by sentiment among traders in Hong Kong. The latest Export Index produced by the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) for Q3 fell to its lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2012.
The Q3 Export Index dropped 9.7 points quarter-on-quarter to 37.1 points - far below the 50 mark - for key markets the US, the European Union, Japan and the Chinese mainland all moving lower.
HKTDC has now downgraded its export growth forecast for the year to 0per cent, from three per cent previously. The Stifel Logistics Confidence Index also declined this month, falling to its lowest level in 27 months.
HKTDC research chief Nicholas Kwan, said exporters had been hit hard by headwinds from key markets, while the depreciation of Chinese yuan had done little to boost sales.
"The Greek debt crisis continues to drag down the recovery of the European Union economy," he said. "While the Chinese mainland has introduced stimulus measures, economic growth there continues to moderate.
"The global economy now faces several potential risks and the trading environment for the rest of the year will be challenging," he said.
A 3PL representative who asked not be named told Lloyd's Loading List that ocean freight markets would continue to be blighted by low rates until the demand growth outlook showed some sign of catching up with expanding container fleet capacity.
"We expect a modest 2015 peak season," he said.
Air and ocean freight confidence as measured by the Stifel Logistics Confidence Index (LCI) recorded near-universal deterioration in September across major air and ocean freight trade lanes to and from Europe.
The logistics investment analyst said the overall index fell 4.8 per cent sequentially this month and 13.1 per cent year on year to a reading of 51.5 - its lowest level since June 2013.
MARKETS
28 September 2015 - 22:51
Hong Kong expects growth to fall from 3pc to zero as 3PLs see weak peak
WORLD trade confidence continues to slide in the face of poor global economic indicators, according to surveys and industry forecasts, reports Lloyd's Loading List.
MARKETS
28 September 2015 - 22:51
Hong Kong expects growth to fall from 3pc to zero as 3PLs see weak peak
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