CONTAINER throughput at Europe’s Northern Range ports is forecast to decline 5.2 per cent year on year in the first half of 2016, according Hackett Associates and the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL), of Bremerhaven.
"At best we are facing a mild recession, at worst something more severe, as capacity continues to sharply outpace demand," the Global Port Tracker: North Europe Trade Outlook report stated.
"The North Europe Global Port model of economic fundamental indicators all point to a lack of growth and many of them to a further decline in economic activity, all of which will reduce the volume of trade," it said.
Loaded incoming containers are projected to fall 4.5 per cent in the coming six months versus the previous six months, a decline of six per cent compared to the previous year, reported Lloyd's Loading List.
Hackett figures for the full year 2015 estimate that total imports to Europe are down by 3.2 per cent, with at least a four per cent slide anticipated in North Europe.
The six Northern Range ports of Le Havre, Zeebrugge, Antwerp, Rotterdam, Bremen/Bremerhaven and Hamburg are projected to post a combined 4.4 per cent decrease in incoming volumes for the whole of 2015, while loaded outgoing volumes are projected to fall 3.1 per cent. The total handled volume is forecast to be down 2.3 per cent.
It said that among the Northern Range major ports, "only Antwerp had a decent year and will likely maintain strength in 2016 as it is not exposed to the collapse in the Russian trade volumes that has so plagued its northern competitors".
Looking forward, Ben Hackett of Hackett Associates said: "We do not see recovery in volumes nor in freight rates."
PORTS
07 January 2016 - 20:36
EU's Northern Range ports box volumes expected to fall 5.2pc in first half
CONTAINER throughput at Europe’s Northern Range ports is forecast to decline 5.2 per cent year on year in the first half of 2016, according Hackett Associates and the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL), of Bremerhaven.
PORTS
07 January 2016 - 20:36
EU's Northern Range ports box volumes expected to fall 5.2pc in first half
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