Eastbound transpac trade upgraded to 3pc growth on new China numbers
EASTBOUND transpacific traffic in expected to grow three per cent to 13.1 million TEU, according to Journal of Commerce economist Mario Moreno, who upgraded the forecast of two per cent growth made at the Transpacific Maritime Conference in Long Beach.
Better-than-expected traffic in the first quarter was the major driver in the upgrade - issued in the June report of Container Shipping Outlook. "China was the region's best performer sending 4.9 per cent more volume or nearly double the four-quarter moving average rate of growth to US ports than in the same period last year," he said.
His renewed forecast is based on the assumptions that the housing market in the US will remain in recovery mode, supported by affordable mortgage rates, and advances on the employment front. This is good for demand of imported furniture and other home goods. In addition, auto sales continue their recovery, resulting in a strong demand for imported auto parts. "This trade should continue to improve through 2013, with support from the increasingly competitive Japanese yen," Mr Moreno said.
US container imports from southeast Asia are forecast to grow seven per cent this year, faster than the 2.3 per cent growth expected from northeast Asia. But despite positive forecasts for the trade, US containerised imports from Asia will not surpass their 2007 peak until next year.
But the improving conditions have led shipping lines that carry containerised imports from Asia to announce plans to implement a peak-season surcharge of US$400 per FEU to all US destinations effective August 1. This follows an increase of as much as $400 per FEU to the US west coast and $600 per FEU to all other US destinations implemented by some members of the Transpacific Stabilisation Agreement on July 1.
EASTBOUND transpacific traffic in expected to grow three per cent to 13.1 million TEU, according to Journal of Commerce economist Mario Moreno, who upgraded the forecast of two per cent growth made at the Transpacific Maritime Conference in Long Beach.
Better-than-expected traffic in the first quarter was the major driver in the upgrade - issued in the June report of Container Shipping Outlook. "China was the region's best performer sending 4.9 per cent more volume or nearly double the four-quarter moving average rate of growth to US ports than in the same period last year," he said.
His renewed forecast is based on the assumptions that the housing market in the US will remain in recovery mode, supported by affordable mortgage rates, and advances on the employment front. This is good for demand of imported furniture and other home goods. In addition, auto sales continue their recovery, resulting in a strong demand for imported auto parts. "This trade should continue to improve through 2013, with support from the increasingly competitive Japanese yen," Mr Moreno said.
US container imports from southeast Asia are forecast to grow seven per cent this year, faster than the 2.3 per cent growth expected from northeast Asia. But despite positive forecasts for the trade, US containerised imports from Asia will not surpass their 2007 peak until next year.
But the improving conditions have led shipping lines that carry containerised imports from Asia to announce plans to implement a peak-season surcharge of US$400 per FEU to all US destinations effective August 1. This follows an increase of as much as $400 per FEU to the US west coast and $600 per FEU to all other US destinations implemented by some members of the Transpacific Stabilisation Agreement on July 1.