Tanker movements surge around southern Africa as shippers avoid the Red Sea and Suez Canal due to escalating Middle East conflict, reports Geopolitical Futures.
Tanker movements around southern Africa have risen sharply as shippers avoid the Red Sea and Suez Canal amid escalating conflict in the Middle East, reported Geopolitical Futures of Austin, Texas.
Traffic around the Cape of Good Hope reached its highest levels since early 2025, accelerating in April after fighting spread across Gulf and Red Sea shipping corridors. Volumes had remained elevated but uneven through much of 2025 and early 2026.
The shift reflects declining confidence in the Red Sea transit corridor through Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal. Shippers had cautiously resumed using the route during a period of relative calm, but the latest escalation halted and reversed that trend.
The diversion adds about two weeks to Asia-Europe voyages. However, operators appear willing to accept longer journeys and higher but predictable costs, including increased war risk insurance premiums, to avoid volatile and severe disruptions along the Red Sea route.
