Container shipping through the Suez Canal has rebounded, exceeding 50% of pre-crisis levels, signaling a return to more reliable Asia-Europe routes.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has reached its strongest level since the Red Sea crisis began nearly three years ago. Weekly container ship capacity transiting the canal has now climbed above half of pre-disruption levels for the first time. For cargo owners, freight forwarders, and importers, the recovery points to a gradual return to shorter, more predictable Asia-Europe routings. It also brings a new set of capacity and congestion variables to monitor.
"During the first two weeks of October, weekly container ship capacity transiting the Suez Canal averaged 753k TEU, according to Clarksons Research, compared with 1,457k TEU during the same period in 2023. Since the Houthi attacks began in the Red Sea, this is the first time that transits have exceeded 50% of pre-disruption levels," says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.
TEU, or twenty-foot equivalent unit, is the standard measure of container capacity.
The disruption traces back to November 2023. That month, the Houthis announced that they would target Israeli ships in the Red Sea in response to Israeli attacks in Gaza. The group later broadened its criteria to include attacks on other vessels, which created uncertainty across the wider fleet.
To avoid attacks, container lines began diverting ships away from the Suez Canal and the Red Sea in December 2023. Instead, they sailed the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope. The impact was immediate. By the last week of 2023, weekly container ship capacity transiting the canal had fallen to 330k TEU, compared with a year-to-date average of 1,290k TEU.
The diversion soon became the norm. "From early February 2024 to mid-2026, container ship capacity transiting the Suez Canal averaged 141k TEU per week, equal to on average 11% of the capacity recorded during the same weeks of 2023," says Rasmussen.
The turning point came on 6 July 2026. On that date, the Gemini Alliance of Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced that its AE15/SE3 Asia-Mediterranean service would return to the Suez Canal. Since then, the return to normal routings has accelerated.
The Gemini Alliance has since announced that five more services will return to their normal routings, including its remaining three Asia-Mediterranean services. Members of the Ocean Alliance and the Premier Alliance, as well as MSC, have also announced routing changes. In total, carriers have announced changes to 16 services since early July.
These changes are already reshaping the routing balance. During the first two weeks of October, 36% of the total container ship capacity routed via either the canal or the cape transited the Suez Canal. That figure is well above the 8% average recorded between 2024 and mid-2026. However, it remains far below the 80% share recorded before the attacks began.
Traffic direction tells a similar story of steady but uneven progress. Southbound sailings initially drove the increase in Suez Canal transits. In the third quarter, northbound capacity was only 75% of southbound capacity. That ratio rose to 81% during the first weeks of October, signaling a more balanced two-way recovery.
The return to the canal carries direct implications for fleet capacity, freight market balance, and schedule planning. Longer voyages around Africa absorbed a large share of the global fleet. As that extra sailing distance disappears, vessel capacity is returning to the market.
"We estimate that rerouting away from the Suez Canal increased global container ship demand by about 10%. That increase is now reducing quickly. However, as the return to the Suez Canal has coincided with increased port congestion in Asia, the full effect on supply/demand has yet to be seen," says Rasmussen.
For shippers, the developments signal potential gains in transit reliability and route efficiency on Asia-Europe and Asia-Mediterranean lanes. Even so, congestion at Asian ports means schedule disruptions are not yet a thing of the past. Freight forwarders face a period of active service and routing changes that will require close tracking of carrier announcements and vessel schedules. Importers and buyers should watch how capacity releases affect freight costs, lead times, and inventory planning in the months ahead.
The recovery of Suez Canal transits above the 50% threshold is not simply a statistical milestone. It marks a strategic shift in how global container trade moves and positions supply chains for a more efficient, though still evolving, phase of East-West shipping.