Rising security risks in the Black Sea hinder exporters' access to ships, threatening raw material supplies and increasing production costs.
While shipowners are reluctant to go to Russian and Ukrainian ports, exporters are struggling to find vessels to carry their cargo. The sector warns that disruptions in raw material supply will increase production costs, creating new pressure on inflation.
The escalating security risk in the Black Sea has begun to directly affect Turkey's foreign trade with Russia and Ukraine. As attacks on commercial vessels have increased during the Russia-Ukraine war, the recent drone attack on a ship belonging to the Turkish shipping company Medkon has further heightened concerns in the region. Due to security concerns, many shipowners are unwilling to operate to Russian and Ukrainian ports, while exporters are also having difficulty finding ships to carry their cargo.
Sector representatives state that a significantly higher number of vessels are waiting for cargo in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean compared to normal periods, but transportations have slowed down due to security concerns. There are particular worries that disruptions in the transportation of grain, coal, and industrial raw materials will negatively impact both production and domestic market prices.
Representatives from the İMEAK Chamber of Shipping (DTO) indicated that they are closely monitoring attacks on Turkish-owned, operated, and flagged commercial vessels in the Black Sea. Officials have contacted the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to request the initiation of necessary diplomatic efforts with the parties involved in the conflict and international organizations to protect the safety of seafarers and defend the rights of the sector. It was stated that the process would be followed in coordination with the relevant authorities.
For the first time, such a large number of spot vessel positions have emerged.
KOSDER Honorary President Salih Zeki Çakır noted that there are a total of 759 minibulkers operating in the Black Sea within the range of 3,000-12,000 DWT, with 312 of them in 'ballast,' meaning they are empty. Çakır stated that not all of these vessels are in the spot market, emphasizing that a significant portion is waiting for cargo. He remarked, 'We have seen an unprecedented number of spot vessel positions in the daily market. This situation is not limited to the Black Sea; it is felt throughout the Mediterranean.'
Çakır also pointed out that the issue is beginning to reflect in the field, saying, 'I just received a call from an industrialist importing coal from Russia. He said, 'I cannot find a ship to carry my cargo.' Ships are avoiding loading due to security concerns. If this situation continues, there could be serious problems in raw material supply.'
It will create pressure on inflation.
Sector representatives emphasize that delays in the transportation of grain, coal, iron and steel, and other industrial raw materials from Russia and Ukraine will increase production costs, which will create new pressure on inflation. It is noted that potential capacity bottlenecks in coastal shipping could raise freight rates and lead to new disruptions in the supply chain.
Human life is also under threat.
Coastal shipowner Hakan Çendik made an urgent call to the international community, stating, 'Maritime transport is the lifeblood of global trade, and seafarers are the workers who selflessly carry out this challenging task. Illegal attacks on commercial vessels threaten not only the ships but also the global supply chain and the lives of millions of people. International organizations, shipowner associations, and governments must take simultaneous diplomatic and practical security measures. Remaining silent today will lead to much greater losses tomorrow.'
Billions of dollars at risk in Black Sea trade.
Turkey's foreign trade figures also highlight the importance of the Black Sea route. In the first five months of this year, imports from Russia reached 17.3 billion dollars, while imports from Ukraine exceeded 1.2 billion dollars. According to TIM data, Turkey's exports to Russia amounted to approximately 2.7 billion dollars, while exports to Ukraine were around 2.1 billion dollars during the January-June period of this year. Import figures for June have not yet been released.
TIM President Gültepe: Initiatives should be accelerated at the country level.
Mustafa Gültepe, President of the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TİM), expressed that the escalation of war in the Black Sea, which directly targets civilian commercial vessels and logistics corridors, poses a significant risk for exports to the region. Gültepe stated, 'The security of our trade with our northern neighbors depends on the security of the Black Sea. In fact, 57.4% of our exports to Russia by value and 35% of our exports to Ukraine are transported by sea.'
When we look at the tonnage-based data, the situation becomes even more critical; 81% of our exports to Russia and 67% of our exports to Ukraine are shipped by sea. Therefore, any disruption in navigation safety in the Black Sea directly affects our exports. The reluctance of shipowners to go to the region due to drone attacks on commercial vessels and the waiting of hundreds of ships offshore indicate the onset of a global supply issue. In 2025, we had exported 6.7 billion dollars to Russia and 4 billion dollars to Ukraine.
In the first half of this year, we have exports of 3.1 billion dollars to Russia and 2.3 billion dollars to Ukraine. Any blockage in maritime logistics could affect our leading sectors in exports to Russia, such as chemicals, fresh fruits and vegetables, and machinery, as well as our shipments to Ukraine in the chemicals, steel, and electronics sectors. It is of great importance to accelerate initiatives with the relevant countries in the face of this dangerous trend.
Source: Aysel Yücel / Dünya
Source: SeaNews Türkiye
