Odesa port crisis threatens 30 million tons of goods and $3 billion in losses as ships remain barred for two weeks due to security issues.
The Odesa port crisis poses a risk of 30 million tons of products and a potential $3 billion loss.
According to an analysis by Reuters based on Ukrainian officials and industry representatives, no ships have entered the ports in the Odesa region for about two weeks due to shipowners suspending their calls. It is estimated that the rail, road, and Danube routes, which are being used instead of the Black Sea ports with a monthly capacity of approximately 6 million tons, can only meet about 50-55% of this demand.
The disruption in the Odesa port cluster, which is the main gateway for Ukraine's agricultural exports, has left the new harvest season facing a logistical bottleneck. According to a Reuters report dated August 4, industry sources reported that no ships have entered the ports in the region for about two weeks. While the Ukrainian side associates the disruption with Russian attacks and increasing security threats, Moscow claims it is only targeting military-related objectives.
Under normal conditions, Ukraine's Black Sea ports carry approximately 90% of the country's agricultural product exports. These ports have a monthly capacity of about 6 million tons. When port traffic is disrupted, the cargo needs to be shifted to rail, road, and smaller terminals on the Danube; however, it is estimated that this network can only meet about 50-55% of the sea port capacity, with approximately 3-3.3 million tons.
The cost of the alternative corridor adds $45-50 per ton.
It is estimated that the alternative routes add $45-50 per ton to the transportation costs. For producers and exporters operating with low margins in grains and oilseeds, this difference can significantly reduce the competitiveness of the product in the global market. It is projected that the amount of products that may not be exported could exceed 30 million tons, and the losses for the Ukrainian agricultural sector could range from $1.5 billion to $3 billion by 2026.
These figures are not the final losses incurred but rather scenarios that could arise if the port disruption continues. It is noted that the alternative routes may take until the end of August to reach a more stable operational level. During this process, the availability of storage space, wagons, and barges, as well as the water level on the Danube, will be determining factors for the export rate.
Maritime impact: The lost tonnage in Odesa may increase demand for smaller-tonnage Danube vessels and land-connected terminals, while it could also affect global grain freight rates and delivery times. For Turkey, the issue is directly significant in terms of Black Sea grain flow, Bosphorus traffic, and the prices of feed and food raw materials.
Source: SeaNews Türkiye
