Middle East shipping disruptions boost US LNG exports, with capacity set to nearly double by 2031, according to the EIA and industry experts.
Disruptions in Middle East shipping lanes are tightening global oil and gas supplies, positioning the US to expand its lead as the world's top liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter, reported New York's Journal of Commerce.
About one-fifth of global LNG normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed after attacks on cargo ships this week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated that American LNG export capacity is set to nearly double within five years, while natural gas output is forecast to hit record highs.
Michael Morland, Atlantic project cargo director at Norwegian operator G2 Ocean, noted that US LNG expansion has driven breakbulk and project cargo flows for a decade.
He expects growth to continue despite short-term geopolitical shocks, with larger production units and new technologies aimed at meeting rising demand from AI data centers and shifts in the US power mix.
Mr. Morland emphasized that LNG mega-projects are capital-intensive and long-term, meaning Middle East turmoil is unlikely to affect final investment decisions. He mentioned that sourcing locations for project cargo are outside the region, so changes in volumes or patterns would take six to 18 months to appear.
The US currently has eight LNG export terminals, with capacity expected to nearly double by 2031, according to the EIA. Developers signed sale and purchase agreements for 5.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, the highest since 2022.
Four projects reached final investment decisions last year, including Woodside Louisiana LNG, CP2, Rio Grande phase two, and Port Arthur phase two, adding 7.2 Bcf/d capacity by 2031.
US natural gas production is projected to rise 2 percent to 120.8 Bcf/d in 2026 and 122.3 Bcf/d in 2027. Developers plan to add 6.3 gigawatts of gas-fired capacity in 2026, mostly in Texas, Oklahoma, Ohio, Tennessee, and Florida. G2 Ocean's Edwin Peh stated that the company is already shipping turbines and generators for such projects.
Mr. Peh added that it is too early to see cargo shifts from Middle East disruptions, though shippers are monitoring bunker price swings and weighing higher insurance premiums and longer transit times.
