Clarksons Research predicts global car trade by sea will grow 8% to 32.1 million units by 2025, fueled by rising demand and EV market growth.
According to the Car Carrier Trade & Transport 2025 report published by Clarksons Research, global car trade conducted by sea is expected to gain strong momentum, reaching 32.1 million units with an 8% growth by 2025. Data communicated by Clarksons to DenizHaber.com indicates that the car carrier sector is performing above historical averages despite anticipated market corrections in 2025.
Steve Gordon, Managing Director of Clarksons Research, noted that 2025 will be a "mixed but resilient" year for the sector. He emphasized that despite corrections in the charter and vessel asset markets, freight revenues and operator earnings are maintaining a strong trajectory. According to Gordon, trade volumes are exceeding expectations despite the customs tariffs imposed by the United States.
The report indicates that China's car exports are on track to reach a historic peak of 6.2 million units, reflecting an approximate increase of 30%. Conversely, a limited decline of about 7% is anticipated in U.S. car imports due to the impact of tariffs. In developing regions, the picture is quite striking: Africa and Latin America are preparing for the strongest increase in car imports in the last decade, while Middle Eastern imports are expected to rise by 11% to reach 3.4 million units, setting a new record.
A significant transformation is also occurring in the electric vehicle (EV) sector. It is estimated that by 2025, approximately 15% of global car trade transported by sea will consist of electric vehicles. This shift is accelerating the fuel transition of the car carrier fleet. According to Clarksons data, 1 million CEU, equivalent to about 20% of the total fleet capacity, now consists of vessels suitable for alternative fuel usage.
On the fleet side, rapid growth is noteworthy. The car carrier fleet is expected to expand by 13% in 2025, with the delivery of newbuild vessels with a capacity of approximately 570,000 CEU. However, there is a noticeable slowdown in new ship orders. By 2025, only six new vessels with a capacity of 22,000 CEU have been ordered, which is significantly below the annual average order volume of 500,000 CEU during the 2021–2024 period. A similar easing is observed in second-hand ship prices.
In the charter market, while a downward trend is dominant throughout 2025, a recent bottom formation has been noted. As of November, the daily rate for a one-year time charter of a PCTC with a capacity of 6,500 CEU is around $42,500. Although this figure represents a 63% decrease compared to the extraordinary peaks at the beginning of 2024, it is still double the level of the ten-year average prior to the pandemic.
Clarksons Research also highlights uncertainties regarding the upcoming period. Factors such as the sustainability of strong growth in Chinese exports and a potential decrease in transportation demand if Red Sea and Suez Canal passages return to normal are among the risk elements. According to the current baseline scenario, trade growth is expected to cool to around 2-3% in 2026, while fleet growth is anticipated to continue at approximately 7%.
This report from Clarksons Research, the market leader, comprehensively addresses car carrier charter markets, the global automotive industry, maritime trade trends, fleet structure, newbuild and second-hand ship markets, and supply-demand projections. The report is published through Clarksons Research's Shipping Intelligence Network (SIN) platform, providing the industry with the most up-to-date and detailed analyses of global maritime and trade data.
Source: www.denizhaber.com
