Maersk plans to lift its fleet capacity limit, focusing on growth through new ship orders and leases as it surpasses 4.7 million TEU.
Danish container shipping giant Maersk is preparing to abandon the fleet capacity limit that has become one of the key elements of its strategy in recent years. As CEO Vincent Clerc is expected to redirect the company towards fleet growth, it is assessed that Maersk could increase its capacity through new ship orders and charters.
Despite the high profitability period in container shipping during the 2020s, Maersk has pursued a cautious policy regarding capacity increases, aiming to keep its fleet in the range of approximately 4 million to 4.4 million TEU for a long time. While new ship orders have primarily focused on renewing aging tonnage, the company has avoided net capacity additions to the fleet.
However, it appears that this discipline is now a thing of the past. The fleet operated by Maersk has now surpassed 4.7 million TEU. On the other hand, CMA CGM strengthening its second position and having a larger order portfolio increases the competitive pressure on Maersk.
Statements made to investors regarding Maersk's second-quarter results also indicated that the company might change its approach. The company noted that it has reached the limits of capacity increases that can be obtained from its existing fleet, stating that it will 'ensure it has the necessary capacity to grow.'
Analysts from Linerlytica suggest that these statements could herald a new ship order period for Maersk. According to the consultancy firm, Maersk's annualized fleet growth has remained at only 2% since 2018, while this rate has reached 11.7% for its significant competitors.
Analysts emphasize that eight years of capacity discipline have brought Maersk to a period where it needs additional tonnage, but this coincides with a time when the global container ship order book has reached record levels.
Drewry Managing Director Philip Damas believes that it is not certain that Maersk will embark on a large-scale new ship order program. According to Damas, the company's priorities may include renewing aging ships and adding vessels suitable for rapidly growing regional trade routes to the fleet.
According to Drewry data, Maersk's order book includes 46 ships with a capacity of 15,000 TEU and above, while the number of ships below 6,000 TEU is only 7.
Damas also pointed out that Maersk's avoidance of excessive capacity orders in recent years could provide long-term advantages. Accordingly, the company's cautious approach may position Maersk better compared to its competitors against the potential risk of excess capacity that could arise in the 2027-2029 period.
However, the high cost of orders to be placed today poses a significant question mark for Maersk. Damas noted that the company might consider the option of purchasing large container ships from shipowners facing excess capacity at more favorable prices by waiting for the next freight market downturn instead.
Andy Lane from Singapore-based CTI Consultancy stated that Maersk already has an order book equivalent to about 25% of its current capacity, part of which will be balanced by ships that will be scrapped.
Lane also pointed out that new capacity, which will correspond to approximately 25% of the global fleet, is expected to come into service in the 2027-2028 period, indicating that the risk of excess capacity in the sector is increasing with demand growing at an annual rate of about 5%.
Lars Jensen, a maritime analyst from Vespucci Maritime, expressed that lifting the capacity limit does not necessarily mean a large wave of new ship orders. According to Jensen, Maersk could also opt to lease ships more aggressively instead of ordering new ones.
Indeed, it is reported that Maersk has significantly increased its use of chartered ships recently. Alphaliner analyst Jan Tiedemann argued that the company has been 'very aggressive' in chartering ships lately, indicating that Maersk misjudged the timing for new ship orders a few years ago.
Tiedemann noted that Maersk has ordered large new ships too late and in insufficient numbers, suggesting that the company may need between 10 to 20 additional ships in the upcoming period.
Maersk's need for fleet renewal is also among the factors strengthening the possibility of new orders. As one of the early investors in ultra-large container ships, some of the large vessels in its fleet will need to be renewed by the early 2030s.
Alphaliner analyst Tiedemann stated that he expects Maersk to place orders for large-capacity LNG dual-fuel container ships in the later months of the year. These ships could potentially be delivered between 2029 and 2031.
Maersk's departure from the long-standing limit on fleet capacity signals that the company may not only renew its fleet but also shift to a growth strategy. However, high new ship prices, an increasing global order book, and the risk of excess capacity that may arise in the 2027-2029 period complicate the strategic equation ahead for Maersk.
Company officials have not yet responded to questions regarding the matter.
Source: SeaNews Türkiye
