Military tensions and technical blackouts obscure ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, reshaping maritime trade dynamics in the region.
The ship traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the exit gate of the Persian Gulf, has turned into a complete enigma for external observers due to military tensions in the region and technical blackouts. 'Shadow fleets' that turn off AIS signals and Iran's selective passage approvals are radically transforming maritime trade in the area.
Signal Blackout and Intelligence Gap
Clarifying the traffic picture in the Strait of Hormuz is becoming increasingly difficult. Although the U.S. military and Omani coast guard have radar data, civil ship tracking systems are facing significant data loss. The shutting down of Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) by vessels to conceal their presence is disabling primary information sources. In the current scenario, the strait is open to vessels registered at Iranian ports or those that have received approval from the Tehran administration, while it poses a serious attack risk for unapproved vessels, characterizing it as a closed area.
Privileged Passages: The India and China Model
The LPG tankers Shivalik and Nanda Devi, owned by the Shipping Corporation of India (SCI) and operating under Iran's strategic approval, passed through the strait smoothly accompanied by the Indian Navy. Similarly, the Marshall Islands-flagged bulk carrier Iron Maiden, identifying itself as 'fully crewed by Chinese,' transferred the tactic from the Red Sea crisis to Hormuz and proceeded unobstructed towards Singapore. Lloyd's List Intelligence reported that during the same period, unidentified tankers carrying Saudi oil were also operating on the Indian route.
'Shadow Fleet' and Sanctioned Vessel Mobility
A significant portion of the traffic in the strait consists of vessels listed under sanctions and referred to as 'shadow fleets':
Greek Operation: The Liberian-flagged tanker Smyrni, owned by the Greece-based Dynacom company, passed through the strait carrying Saudi oil towards Mumbai.
Sanctioned Tankers: The Guinea-flagged Ocean Guardian (formerly known as Danube) and the Aruba-flagged Blooming Dale, both under OFAC sanctions, continue their operations originating from Basra.
Russian Line: The Belize-flagged Rozana, which frequently visits Russian ports, sailed eastward through the strait without obstruction on March 7.
Iran's de facto control over the strait allows Tehran to benefit from high oil and natural gas prices while economically punishing the blockaded Gulf countries. This situation also politically undermines U.S. war efforts in the region; states suffering from the blockade are increasing pressure on Washington to end the war before strategic objectives are achieved.
Pentagon sources are discussing military operations and convoy systems to break Iran's control. However, convoy operations are expected to reduce tanker traffic to well below normal levels. Alternatively, a strategy of seizing Iranian vessels is being considered with the arrival of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, consisting of 2,200 troops, to the region. Meanwhile, although Iran is constructing the Kooh Mobarak terminal on the Jask peninsula to reduce dependency on Hormuz, it has been observed that the facility remained completely idle in January and February due to infrastructure issues.
Source: SeaNews Türkiye
