Iran's firing on two Indian-flagged oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz has raised doubts over Tehran's ability to protect even friendly shipping as conflict pressures mount, reports Hong Kong's South China Morning Post.

The attack on Jag Arnav and Sanmar Herald on Saturday was seen by analysts as a case of mistaken identity rather than a deliberate targeting of India. Both vessels were carrying crude, including 2 million barrels from Iraq. No crew injuries were reported; however, the Sanmar Herald sustained minor damage.

The incident followed Iran's announcement that Hormuz was back under strict military control, reversing earlier signals that traffic might resume. India summoned Iranian Ambassador Mohammad Fathali to express its 'deep concern' and pressed for the safe passage of its ships.

Analysts stated that the episode highlighted how quickly confusion and military pressure in the congested waterway can affect vessels not intended to be in the line of fire. Commentators noted either a lack of coordination between Iran's civil and military leadership or a failure of control on the ground.

India imports 85 percent of its oil, making it highly exposed to disruptions in the Gulf. Middle Eastern grades account for 55 to 60 percent of its supply, with alternatives often being costlier or less compatible with Indian refineries.

The Hormuz blockade has trapped about 13 million barrels of oil and 300 million cubic meters per day of liquefied natural gas, forcing producers to shut facilities. Brent crude prices rose 5.7 percent after a chaotic weekend with no clear settlement plan.

Pakistan is preparing to host new talks before a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the US expires. Analysts believe that India and Iran are likely to pursue pragmatic de-escalation, given their strong mutual stakes and long-standing cooperation in trade, energy, and port development.