The US freight market tightens without strong import demand, as shippers adapt to new strategies amid changing inventory levels and capacity challenges.
Import demand has played little role in the current tightening of the US freight market, unlike the pandemic era when cyclical surges drove capacity shortages, reports New York's FreightWaves.
The Inbound Ocean TEUs Volume Index, a 14-day moving average of requests to move containers, peaked at 2,692 in June 2021 but now stands at 1,715. While well below highs, analysts say this does not necessarily signal weak demand.
Shippers in 2024 and 2025 ordered early to hedge against tariffs and service disruptions, adopting what supply chain managers call just-in-case strategies. Inventory levels surged in early 2022 before falling sharply in late 2022 and early 2023.
Restocking resumed in 2024 as Middle East conflict threatened maritime capacity. By late 2025, tariff concerns eased and ordering patterns aligned more closely with inventory levels, reflecting leaner just-in-time practices.
Leaner warehouses reduce costs but leave shippers vulnerable to demand shocks, requiring steady trucking service. This comes as the trucking sector emerges from one of its longest downturns, with capacity eroding under regulatory pressure.
The SONAR Truckload Volume Index shows tender requests at familiar levels, but rejection rates are higher due to shrinking capacity. Peak import season in July and August could strain intermodal networks if inventories run too thin.
Analysts say the market has tightened without import demand so far, but its influence is expected to grow as 2026 progresses.
