Global Shippers' Forum advises ocean carriers to postpone Red Sea transits due to rising protests in Iran and potential US military involvement.
Ocean carriers should delay plans to resume Red Sea transits due to escalating protests in Iran and threats of US military intervention, the Global Shippers' Forum warned, reports London's S&P Global.
GSF director James Hookham stated that the risk of Houthi militants resuming attacks on merchant shipping remains significant if foreign powers intervene in Iran. Although attacks have been quiet since the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in October, carriers now face renewed uncertainty.
Drewry data indicated that 26 container ships transited the Suez Canal in the week ending January 11, marking the highest number in five weeks. CMA CGM has increased services through the Red Sea, while Maersk conducted trial voyages and plans to reinstate regular sailings on its India-US East Coast network.
Mr. Hookham emphasized that carriers set a high bar for return, virtually requiring peace in the Middle East. He questioned why they would resume operations now when risks are higher than they were three months ago. Human rights groups report thousands killed in Tehran's crackdown, prompting US President Donald Trump to pledge support.
Analysts warned that a widescale return to the Red Sea would trigger congestion at European hubs, soaring freight rates, and reduced reliability. Lars Jensen of Vespucci Maritime noted that shippers will prioritize shorter routes, forcing carriers to shift capacity faster than planned.
Mr. Jensen added that schedule reliability could drop by 30 to 35 percentage points during the transition before stabilizing. He cautioned that once networks settle, global overcapacity will follow, creating further challenges for carriers and shippers.
