Increased military activity by Russia and Iran in the Caspian Sea raises safety concerns for shipping among littoral states, reports Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Rising military activity by Russia and Iran in the Caspian Sea is fuelling concerns among littoral states that the waterway is no longer safe for shipping, reported Washington, DC's Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Ukraine has responded with drone strikes, while Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan have expanded their naval forces and deepened cooperation with Turkey and NATO.
Analysts say three alliances are emerging around the Caspian. Russia, Iran, and China have conducted joint exercises and port dredging projects. Azerbaijan and Turkey are working with other Turkic states, while Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan form a third grouping. The blocs are increasingly formalised, raising the risk of clashes.
Azerbaijani columnist Nurani noted that Russia and Iran have used the Caspian as a weapons corridor, with Kalibr missiles launched at Ukraine and earlier strikes on Syria. Ukrainian drones have attacked Russian naval bases, oil platforms, and control ships in the sea.
The recent sinking of an Iranian vessel in Turkmenistan's sector has heightened fears. Nurani suggested that the United States and allies could become involved, given Washington's interest in strikes on Iranian targets. Russia insists its ties with Iran are legitimate under the 2018 Caspian convention, while opposing NATO involvement.
Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan have invested heavily in their navies to counter Russian and Iranian activity. Their fleets are now large enough to challenge Moscow's dominance, though all sides continue to call for cooperation.
Kazakh analyst Andrey Matveyev described the Caspian as shifting from a Russian lake to a contested strategic zone and a sea of discord. He warned that shrinking water levels limit Russia's larger ships but leave smaller vessels of other states unaffected, increasing the likelihood of confrontation.
Officials in China, the United States, and Europe may reconsider Caspian shipping routes due to rising risks. Potential consequences include Moscow pressing for land corridors to secure trade, Beijing shifting east-west commerce to the Northern Sea Route or Suez Canal, and reduced Western investment in Caspian links with Central Asia.
