Freight rates rise for the seventh week, with Southeast Asia experiencing significant increases, while European routes continue to decline.
The latest Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), released on 11 September, posted a composite reading of 3,662.18 points - an increase of 72.13 points from the previous week, representing a week-on-week gain of 2% and marking the seventh consecutive week of growth. Across individual trade lanes, North American routes extended their upward trajectory while Near-Sea routes to Southeast Asia recorded the most pronounced gains. European and Mediterranean routes, by contrast, continued to weaken, deepening the divergence that now characterizes the broader container shipping market.
The latest data indicates that Far East to US West Coast freight rates rose to USD 7,339 per FEU, a weekly increase of 1.33%, while Far East to US East Coast rates advanced to USD 10,479 per FEU, up 1.5% week-on-week. Southeast Asia delivered the standout performance of the period: Far East to Southeast Asia rates climbed USD 117 per TEU to reach USD 1,010 per TEU, a weekly gain of 13.1% that carried rates through the psychologically significant USD 1,000 threshold.
Industry observers attribute the sustained demand in part to a degree of resilience in global manufacturing activity throughout August, with the United States, the Eurozone, Japan, and select Southeast Asian economies all recording expansion in manufacturing output, new orders, and production - conditions that provide underlying support for trade and transportation volumes. The pre-Golden Week concentration of shipments ahead of China's National Day holiday is also expected to sustain near-term cargo volumes.
Demand, however, has not strengthened uniformly. Far East to Europe rates fell to USD 2,545 per TEU, a weekly decline of 3.7%, while Mediterranean routes retreated to USD 3,299 per TEU, down 8.13% on the week.
Demand signals have begun to moderate, yet carriers continue to underpin market pricing through disciplined capacity management, including blank sailings and service suspensions. According to Drewry data, eight blank sailings are planned on transpacific routes for the coming week - above the seven recorded this week - a level of supply discipline that is expected to maintain relative rate stability in the near term. Equivalent capacity adjustments are being sustained across Asia-North Europe and Mediterranean services. Between 14 September and 18 October, an estimated 79 blank sailings are projected across major East-West trade lanes, accounting for approximately 11% of scheduled departures. This indicates that even as the impetus for cargo growth softens, carriers retain the capacity to support market pricing by restricting supply.
Geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and broader Middle East have re-escalated in recent weeks, yet European freight rates have failed to reflect any corresponding upward movement. Spot market quotations published on 11 September reveal that Shanghai-Rotterdam rates for certain shipments had declined to approximately USD 3,235 per FEU - a reduction of around USD 200 compared with rates recorded on 4 September. The question of whether Red Sea transit routes will see further restoration of normal service remains a material variable shaping Asia-Europe capacity dynamics. Recent developments - including advances by Yemen's Houthi forces toward the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait - have renewed attention to navigational safety risks in the corridor. Should a greater number of liner operators progressively reinstate Red Sea routing, the additional vessel time currently absorbed by Cape of Good Hope diversions would diminish, effective capacity on Asia-Europe lanes would expand, and downward pressure on freight rates could intensify as a consequence.
The container shipping market has entered a period of pronounced divergence. US routes retain demand-side support, Southeast Asia continues to outperform, while European and Mediterranean services remain under sustained pressure. As China's National Day Golden Week approaches, near-term cargo volumes are likely to hold firm; however, a post-holiday demand correction is widely regarded as inevitable. Whether rates can sustain elevated levels in the wake of the holiday will depend critically on the scale of carrier blank sailing programs and the extent of any port congestion that develops in the period.
For freight forwarders, the more pressing considerations extend beyond the SCFI's consecutive weekly gains. The strategic priorities for the current period are the pre-Golden Week shipping window, carrier blank sailing schedules, and the pace at which capacity is restored to market following the holiday - factors that will collectively determine the rate environment as the market transitions into the final quarter of the year.
