Fitch Ratings maintains a negative outlook for shipping in 2026, citing geopolitical instability, policy risks, and slower GDP growth.
Fitch Ratings has maintained a negative outlook for the global shipping sector in 2026, citing geopolitical instability and policy risks, as reported by Manila Times.
The agency expects slower GDP growth across major economies compared to 2025, with additional downside risks stemming from potential financial market corrections.
A key event risk is the potential resumption of Red Sea transits. While restoring access to the Suez Canal would enhance safety, it would simultaneously reduce ton-mile demand, effectively increasing vessel supply and exerting downward pressure on freight rates.
Trade protectionism and tariff disputes are already moderating volume growth, particularly in container shipping. Fitch noted that while new trade lanes may emerge, they will not offset losses in primary routes.
Container shipping performance is forecasted to weaken in 2026 as lower freight rates erode profits. Conversely, tanker shipping, especially crude carriers, is expected to perform well, while dry bulk remains weak but stable. LNG shipping and car carriers are projected to remain broadly steady.
Order books have risen moderately across segments; however, low scrappage has led to capacity growth outpacing demand. Additionally, operational costs are set to rise under the International Maritime Organization's pending Net Zero framework, increasing pressure on shipping companies' cost structures.
