As the October deadline approaches, the EU faces challenges in securing trade concessions from China due to structural imbalances and limited leverage.
With an October deadline looming, Brussels is unlikely to secure major trade concessions from Beijing as structural imbalances and limited leverage weigh on talks, reported Lyons' Euronews.
The EU's trade deficit with China doubled in five years to EUR360 billion (US$415 billion) in 2025, equal to EUR1 billion a day. European leaders have called the imbalance unsustainable and demanded rebalancing, but analysts say meaningful progress will be difficult without a tougher stance.
Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic met with his Chinese counterpart Wang Wentao in June, issuing a joint call to stabilize ties. He set October for 'tangible' results, but experts warn that China's export-driven economy and heavy subsidies make concessions unlikely.
Beijing's leverage lies in rare earths, with a truce on exports expiring in October. European industries reliant on these minerals fear disruption, especially after China barred 14 EU firms from receiving dual-use goods in retaliation for sanctions linked to Russia.
Analysts say Europe's fragmented politics weaken its position. Germany and Spain continue to defend national interests, while the bloc's anti-coercion 'trade bazooka' remains unused. Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten cautioned Europe not to be naive about retaliation.
Officials argue that Europe's market remains vital for China, offering scope for rebalancing. However, experts doubt Beijing will offer more than minor concessions, leaving Brussels to weigh how much economic pain it is willing to absorb in a trade war.
