Drone incidents in the Black Sea have surged by 208%, posing significant risks to commercial shipping and navigation safety.
There is a significant increase in cases of drifting unmanned aerial and marine vehicles, as well as unexploded ordnance in the Black Sea. According to maritime security company Ambrey, detections in the waters of Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria have risen by 208% in the last six months. Experts are warning commercial vessels to avoid approaching suspicious objects seen at sea.
The effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on commercial shipping in the Black Sea have reached a new dimension. The drifting of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), unmanned surface vehicles (USVs), and unexploded ordnance into busy commercial shipping routes is increasingly heightening the risks to navigation safety in the region.
According to the latest assessment published by maritime security company Ambrey, between September 2, 2025, and September 7, 2026, at least 105 UAVs, USVs, or unexploded ordnance were detected in 91 separate incidents in the Black Sea basin.
The risk in Turkish waters has also grown.
The most notable increase in the report occurred along NATO's Black Sea coasts. The number of war-related objects detected in the waters of Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey rose from 13 incidents between September 2025 and February 2026 to 40 incidents from March to August 2026. Thus, an increase of 208% was recorded in just six months. During the same periods, the total number of detections on the Ukrainian and Russian sides increased from 14 to 16.
A significant rise was also observed in detections across the Black Sea. While 27 incidents were recorded in the first six-month period, the number rose to 56 in the second six months. This represents a 107% increase. In the first seven days of September 2026 alone, eight new incidents were recorded.
Mines are being replaced by drones.
Ambrey's research revealed that the type of threat in the Black Sea has also changed. The number of incidents involving the detection of unmanned aerial and marine vehicles increased from 13 to 41 between the two periods, while detections related to sea mines and older types of munitions decreased from 11 to 8.
Thus, UAVs and unmanned marine vehicles have become the most common drifting war threat in the Black Sea.
They may carry live munitions.
The fact that a significant portion of the detected systems may carry explosives further increases the danger for commercial vessels. According to Ambrey's data, it has been confirmed that at least one-third of the objects detected were carrying active explosive payloads at the time of detection. In 58% of the cases, it was not disclosed to the public whether the object was carrying explosives.
Ambrey Senior Analyst Tomas Alexa emphasized that the ship's crew would not be able to determine whether an unmanned vehicle encountered at sea is a decoy or a system carrying live munitions from the outside, stating that such objects should be treated as active munitions until examined by expert teams.
Attacks on commercial vessels have also increased.
The danger in the Black Sea is not limited to drifting munitions. Direct attacks on commercial vessels have also increased in recent months. According to another assessment published by Ambrey in June, six commercial vessels were directly targeted within just 24 hours on May 28-29, 2026. Three of these were targeted by unmanned marine vehicles in Turkey's exclusive economic zone, while three were attacked by UAVs off the coast of Odessa.
The company considers the Turkish exclusive economic zone off Istanbul-Yalıköy-Samsun as one of the secondary risk areas. It is also noted that the commercial shipping route extending from Romania and Bulgaria to the Bosphorus is at risk due to drifting vehicles and unexploded ordnance.
Reuters also reported at the beginning of September that some commercial tankers and cargo ships navigating in the Black Sea have begun using nets, water-filled tanks, and various physical barriers against drone attacks. However, security experts state that these methods provide limited protection against large military UAVs.
The risk may remain high until the end of 2026.
Ambrey assesses that detections in the Black Sea are likely to remain at high levels for the remainder of 2026. It is particularly noted that the offshore energy infrastructure in the exclusive economic zones of Turkey and Romania could continue to be significant risk areas in the upcoming period.
The increased use of both aerial and marine drones by Russia and Ukraine is causing vehicles that have been hit or have lost control due to electronic warfare systems to fall into the Black Sea. These systems, drifting with currents, are transforming into an unpredictable navigation safety threat for commercial vessels, fishing boats, and coastal areas far from the conflict zone.
Source: SeaNews Türkiye
