China risks severe economic disruption from a Taiwan conflict, with vital trade routes at stake, warns the Taipei Times.
China would face severe economic disruption if it blockaded or invaded Taiwan, with the Taiwan Strait being vital to its trade and domestic shipping, reports the Taipei Times.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies stated that nearly US$1.3 trillion of Chinese trade transited the Taiwan Strait in 2024, which is 33 percent more than through the Malacca Strait. It warned that military action disrupting the Strait could damage China's economy more than a closure of the Malacca Strait.
The Strait carries 33 percent of China's total imports and 58 percent of maritime imports, including oil, coal, gas, and metals. It also serves as a conduit for domestic shipping from southern hubs such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou to major ports like Shanghai, Ningbo, and Tianjin.
The report indicated that land transport could cost three times more than sea routes, creating bottlenecks in inland logistics and causing ripple effects across the economy.
US allies Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines are also exposed, with Japan sending 28 percent of its trade through the Strait. In 2024, these countries shipped US$755 billion worth of goods via this passage.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. have warned that a Chinese move in the Strait could draw their countries into conflict.
The think tank concluded that a blockade could jeopardize 16 percent of China's exports and 58 percent of maritime imports, potentially paralyzing large parts of its economy.
