November 1 saw synchronized rate increases in Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific trades, but actual results fell short of expectations.
November 1 marked a significant date for synchronized rate increases across Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific trades, but results fell short of expectations. Rates on the Europe trade barely moved, while trans-Pacific softening began earlier, highlighting varying conditions across trade lanes.
The gap between announced and actual rates remains wide. For example, while MSC and CMA CGM filed rates around $4,500-$5,200 per FEU for November 1, realized rates hovered between $3,000-$3,500. Despite carriers filing a second round of increased rates for November 15, the effect remains muted. Blank sailings, with an 8% cancellation rate across major east-west trades, are concentrated on the Europe trade. Asia-North Europe/Mediterranean routes account for 46% of these cancellations, reflecting focused capacity management as Europe remains critical for long-term contract negotiations. Still, rates have not stabilized, with Maersk's spot rate dropping to $3,000/FEU in early November, marking the second consecutive weekly decline.
The trans-Pacific trade saw earlier and steeper rate declines. Drewry's World Container Index showed Shanghai-Los Angeles rates falling 6% week-on-week to $7,514/FEU, the largest drop since June 2025, while Shanghai-New York rates fell 5%. Weak US import demand, projected to decline 11% month-on-month in November, has driven this trend. Despite these declines, some forwarders reported stable rates and improved vessel schedules, suggesting localized steadiness amidst broader market weakness. This divergence highlights the importance of distinguishing between booked transaction prices and current quotes.
Blank sailings have not significantly boosted rates, as they mainly target underloaded sailings rather than representing a structural capacity withdrawal. On the Asia-Europe trade, where blank sailings are most concentrated, rates remain weakest. The underlying issue is insufficient demand, with more available capacity than cargo to fill it.
For cargo owners and freight forwarders, tariff announcements should not be taken at face value. Confirmed spot rates should be verified by trade lane and transaction specifics. Monitoring long-term contract developments, US import trends, and blank sailing schedules will remain critical for navigating ongoing volatility.
