Air cargo evolves for 2026, driven by e-commerce growth, infrastructure challenges, and freight theft, as industry leaders adapt to new realities.
Rising e-commerce demand, uneven belly-freight recovery, infrastructure strain, and freight theft transformed air cargo in 2025, compelling carriers and handlers to rethink operations, according to London's Air Cargo Week.
Industry leaders noted that the sector is entering 2026 more adaptive, digitized, and regionally interconnected, despite ongoing policy uncertainty and infrastructure challenges. The Air Cargo Americas event in Miami emphasized that 2025 was not only volatile but also transformational.
While passenger travel strengthened, belly freight remained weak, with the exclusion from Russian airspace described as a "silent capacity drag" on trans-Pacific operations. Carriers serving Asia-Americas and Asia-LATAM routes managed to absorb demand spikes at short notice.
E-commerce established a new baseline, with Amazon Air's 98.9 percent on-time performance cited as a benchmark. The rising demand for late cut-offs, rapid uplift, and tighter supply chain integration is reshaping industry expectations.
Infrastructure friction became evident, as Alliance Ground International reported delays of six to eight weeks in onboarding new airport employees. Some airports are digitizing processes, while others still rely on paper-based workflows.
Supply chains in the Americas were reconfigured, with Brazil, Chile, and Colombia emerging as significant e-commerce consumer markets. Mexico remained central, while the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, and Guatemala gained traction as part of the extended North American base.
Freight theft resurfaced as a major concern, particularly in Mexico, Brazil, and parts of the United States. Organized groups employed fake checkpoints to target cargo, prompting carriers to enhance AI monitoring and strengthen storage facilities.
Executives emphasized that partnerships have become critical infrastructure, with carriers deepening ties with handlers, tech firms, and forwarders. Looking ahead, 2026 will present election-year policy risks, USMCA review uncertainty, and evolving Asia-LATAM demand, but there remains optimism that volatility can be transformed into opportunity.
