ABOUT 40 per cent of US imports shipped in containers moves through the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, supporting hundreds of thousands of jobs throughout Southern California. Shipments in and out have been rising this year, especially those from China.
Experts have predicted that President Trump's recent imposition of tariffs on US$200 billion in Chinese goods that an escalating trade war could soon hit Southern California warehouse workers and truck drivers, while raising prices for consumers.
'If there is one location that is going to be affected more in the United States, it is going to be the greater Los Angeles region,' said Stephen Cheung, president of the nonprofit World Trade Center Los Angeles.
Last year, $173 billion in Chinese imports flowed through the ports, said Jock O'Connell, an economist with Beacon Economics. The largest categories of goods include electronics, furniture, toys and clothing. Exports to China are smaller, totalling $18 billion worth of auto parts, cotton, scrap material and more.
All told, China accounts for about 50 per cent of all the goods moving through the complex, Mr O'Connell said.
Tariffs are a tax on goods; when most of the Trump administration's $50-billion first round of punitive tariffs kicks in July 6, for instance, it will add 25 per cent to the price of those Chinese goods at the border.
The resulting price increase probably will force companies to purchase fewer Chinese products, said Paul Bingham, a trade expert with Economic Development Research Group. He predicted that will lead to a slowdown in trade and fewer hours for port-related workers.
Longshore workers, with strong union protections, will fare better than most workers. But many truck drivers and warehouse workers are independent contractors or employed by third-party temporary help agencies and are especially vulnerable to a drop-off in trade.
'You could see layoffs taking place very quickly,' Mr O'Connell, with Beacon Economics, said.
Mr Cheung said he fears the tariffs will lift consumer prices just as companies already face pressure to pass along higher transportation costs forced by a national shortage of truckers, the Los Angeles Times reported.
'It becomes a cycle that depresses the entire economy,' he said.
Jonathan Gold, a vice president at the National Retail Federation, said retailers are already spending time and money to examine their supply chain to see if they should source items from other countries. But those decisions are further complicated by tariffs Trump has announced on other countries, as well as the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico.
Mr Gold worries that the tariffs will kill any benefits from the personal and corporate tax cuts Trump signed into law last year. That concern was echoed last week by Gary Cohn, Trump's former director of the National Economic Council.
Counter-tariffs from China, also scheduled to start July 6, will hit American farm products, cars and other merchandise.
US tariffs on $450 billion of goods would hit about 90 per cent of all Chinese imports to the country.
Mr Gold said it's not possible to select tariffs on $200 billion worth of goods without raising the prices on everyday consumer items. He urged the two countries to sit down and hash things out.
'Tariffs are a tax that is ultimately paid by the US consumer,' he said.
Experts have predicted that President Trump's recent imposition of tariffs on US$200 billion in Chinese goods that an escalating trade war could soon hit Southern California warehouse workers and truck drivers, while raising prices for consumers.
'If there is one location that is going to be affected more in the United States, it is going to be the greater Los Angeles region,' said Stephen Cheung, president of the nonprofit World Trade Center Los Angeles.
Last year, $173 billion in Chinese imports flowed through the ports, said Jock O'Connell, an economist with Beacon Economics. The largest categories of goods include electronics, furniture, toys and clothing. Exports to China are smaller, totalling $18 billion worth of auto parts, cotton, scrap material and more.
All told, China accounts for about 50 per cent of all the goods moving through the complex, Mr O'Connell said.
Tariffs are a tax on goods; when most of the Trump administration's $50-billion first round of punitive tariffs kicks in July 6, for instance, it will add 25 per cent to the price of those Chinese goods at the border.
The resulting price increase probably will force companies to purchase fewer Chinese products, said Paul Bingham, a trade expert with Economic Development Research Group. He predicted that will lead to a slowdown in trade and fewer hours for port-related workers.
Longshore workers, with strong union protections, will fare better than most workers. But many truck drivers and warehouse workers are independent contractors or employed by third-party temporary help agencies and are especially vulnerable to a drop-off in trade.
'You could see layoffs taking place very quickly,' Mr O'Connell, with Beacon Economics, said.
Mr Cheung said he fears the tariffs will lift consumer prices just as companies already face pressure to pass along higher transportation costs forced by a national shortage of truckers, the Los Angeles Times reported.
'It becomes a cycle that depresses the entire economy,' he said.
Jonathan Gold, a vice president at the National Retail Federation, said retailers are already spending time and money to examine their supply chain to see if they should source items from other countries. But those decisions are further complicated by tariffs Trump has announced on other countries, as well as the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico.
Mr Gold worries that the tariffs will kill any benefits from the personal and corporate tax cuts Trump signed into law last year. That concern was echoed last week by Gary Cohn, Trump's former director of the National Economic Council.
Counter-tariffs from China, also scheduled to start July 6, will hit American farm products, cars and other merchandise.
US tariffs on $450 billion of goods would hit about 90 per cent of all Chinese imports to the country.
Mr Gold said it's not possible to select tariffs on $200 billion worth of goods without raising the prices on everyday consumer items. He urged the two countries to sit down and hash things out.
'Tariffs are a tax that is ultimately paid by the US consumer,' he said.