In 2026, over 300 attacks in the Black Sea led to a 41% drop in vessel entries through the Istanbul Strait, impacting Turkey's maritime trade.
The Black Sea has transformed into one of the most dangerous routes for commercial shipping by 2026. Over 300 attacks have been recorded throughout the year, while the entries of Black Sea-connected vessels through the Istanbul Strait have decreased by 41% compared to the same month last year.
The acceleration of attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea has created a new pressure area that directly affects not only regional security but also Turkey's maritime trade. The fact that attacks targeting commercial maritime traffic have exceeded 300 throughout 2026 indicates a new threshold in the maritime front of the Russia-Ukraine war, while the sharp decline in ship movements in the Istanbul Strait shows that this pressure has now turned into measurable economic consequences. The 41% decrease in entries of Black Sea-connected vessels through the Strait in October compared to the same month last year highlights new risks for Turkey in terms of logistics, freight, and port revenues.
Attacks in the Black Sea overshadow Hormuz.
The number of attacks recorded in the Black Sea exceeding 300 this year has made the region one of the most vulnerable routes in global maritime transport. It is estimated that more than 30 sailors have lost their lives in these attacks, with over 20 others reported missing.
This situation presents an even more striking picture when compared to the Hormuz Strait, which has been the focus of energy markets in recent months. While security risks persist in Hormuz, the number of actual attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea and their deadly consequences indicate that the impact of the war on maritime transport has become significantly more severe.
The deterioration of security along the Black Sea route has also clearly reflected in the traffic data of the Istanbul Strait. It is reported that entries of Black Sea-connected vessels through the Strait have decreased by 41% compared to the same period last year, while the overall decline in transit passages has reached 38%.
This decline does not merely signify a numerical decrease. For Turkey, the slowdown in Strait traffic creates pressure that could affect a wide economic area ranging from agency services to port activities, fuel supply to insurance costs. Particularly, shipowners carrying cargo to the Black Sea are facing higher war premiums and security costs, increasing the fragility of the transportation chain.
Risks spreading to NATO borders prompt new security measures.
The fact that attacks are not limited to the vicinity of Ukrainian ports but have spread to the waters off Romania and Bulgaria has elevated the issue in the Black Sea beyond a regional trade matter. Attacks approaching the shores of NATO member countries have accelerated calls for strengthening maritime security infrastructure in Europe.
On the European side, the acceleration of a new maritime security coordination mechanism centered on Bulgaria and Romania is on the agenda for this reason. The aim is to monitor commercial vessel movements more closely and to re-establish navigational safety in the Black Sea. However, even if the security infrastructure is strengthened, a rapid return of risk premiums to previous levels is not expected in a scenario where the war is actively ongoing.
New pressures on grain, energy, and freight routes.
The most critical economic impact of the attacks in the Black Sea is seen in the pressure on grain and energy transportation. The region plays a significant role in the food supply chain of the Middle East and Africa, particularly with Ukrainian grain, while the increasing security risks extend shipment times and raise costs.
From Turkey's perspective, it is possible to speak of a dual effect. On one hand, the decrease in Strait traffic pressures logistics revenues, while on the other hand, disruptions in the supply chain originating from the Black Sea increase cost volatility in the transportation of grain, feed, energy, and intermediate goods. Therefore, the security issue in the Black Sea has now transformed from merely a foreign news headline into a concrete economic risk topic for the Turkish maritime sector and foreign trade.
Source: SeaNews Türkiye
