IMPORT volumes at US major retail container ports are expected to increase 1.1 per cent in July year on year
US July imports set for 1.1pc, stronger showing expected: Port Tracker
IMPORT volumes at US major retail container ports are expected to increase 1.1 per cent in July year on year, but a slow summer should be followed by increases as retailers head into the holiday season in the autumn, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report.
"With the economy recovering slowly, retailers have been cautious with imports this summer but it's clear that they expect an upturn later in the year," said National Retail Federation vice president Jonathan Gold, whose organisation commissions the report.
"Import numbers have been close to flat since spring, but we expect to see stronger increases this fall," he said.
Cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them. But the amount of merchandise imported nonetheless provides a rough barometer of retailers' expectations, said Global Port Tracker.
US ports surveyed handled 1.38 million TEU in May, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was up 1.2 per cent from April but only 0.6 per cent from May 2012. June was estimated at 1.37 million TEU, down 0.7 per cent from a year ago. July is forecast at 1.43 million TEU, up 1.1 per cent from last year; August at 1.45 million TEU, up 1.7 per cent; September at 1.44 million TEU, up 2.4 per cent; October at 1.46 million TEU, up 9.1 per cent; and November at 1.38 million TEU, up 7.3 per cent.
The first six months of 2013 totalled an estimated 7.8 million TEU, up 1.2 per cent from the first half of 2012. The total for 2012 was 15.8 million TEU, up 2.9 per cent from 2011.
Despite the projected increase in imports, Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett, the author of the study, said actual results will hinge on consumer confidence.
"Consumer sales remain relatively weak compared with GDP," Mr Hackett said. "If consumers do not turn their confidence into purchases then import volumes will drop."