OCEAN Shipping Consultants managing director Andrew Penfold says 22,000-TEU ships are coming in a few years and 24,000-TEUers won't be far behind,
They've done the math! Get ready for 22,000-TEUers, then 24,000-TEUers
OCEAN Shipping Consultants managing director Andrew Penfold says 22,000-TEU ships are coming in a few years and 24,000-TEUers won't be far behind, according to economies-of-scale research done with Lloyd's Register and two unidentified shipping lines.
Speaking at the recent TOC Container Supply Chain conference in Rotterdam, Mr Penfold said: "If you take the analysis up to 24,000-TEU vessels, you will see there are further cost savings to be made. If we go to 18,500-TEU size and then put another couple of bays in the ship you are pretty soon getting to 22,000 to 24,000-TEU size."
Drewry's top analyst Neil Davidson agreed, reported London's Loadstar. "I think it's only a question of time before we see the next upsizing - you might even see 22,000-TEU ships as early as 2018."
Said Mr Penfold: "There is no technical reason why we cannot build 24,000-TEU ships, and if you going to build 18,000-TEU ships, why not go to 20,000-plus TEU ships?"
Researchers concluded that while an 18,000-TEU vessel is expected to incur daily costs at sea of US$197,198, a 22,000-TEU vessel would run-up $220,892 a day and a 24,000-TEU ship would incur costs of $229,693 per day.
At the same time, the per slot cost plunges with an 18,000-TEU ship incurring a cost of $10.96 per TEU per day at sea; while a 22,000-TEU vessel would cost $10.04 per TEU per day at sea, and a 24,000-TEU ship comes in at $9.57 per TEU per day at sea, said the report.
Said Mr Davidson: "Dramatic upsizing is being forced on ports around the world - vessel upsizing is not just an Asia-North Europe story, it's a global story because big ships are pushed out all around the world, and that is affecting everybody."
The Drewry's man added that the 18,000-TEUers would have huge implications ports around the world, not just the ports that are going to serve them.
Lloyd's Register research shows that that a 24,415-TEU ship would likely have a beam of 64 metres and a length of 479 metres. Today, biggest the Maersk 18,000-TEUers are 399 metres long and 59 metres abeam.