The steel industry grapples with overcapacity, rising costs, and changing global trade dynamics, as highlighted at a recent conference.
In his opening speech at the conference, Uğur Dalbeler, General Manager of Çolakoğlu Metalurji and President of the World Steel Association, stated that the steel sector is experiencing one of its most imbalanced and unfair periods in recent history, with overcapacity being the primary issue in the market. He also addressed the shifting dynamics in global trade, the escalating crisis in energy costs, rising labor and exchange rate policy expenses, and the uncertainties introduced by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Dalbeler noted that, for the first time in Turkey, steel imports have surpassed exports, warning that allowing dumped and subsidized products into the market could lead to irreparable consequences.
In the first session, Dr. Veysel Yayan, Secretary General of the Turkish Steel Producers Association, described the trajectory of the Turkish steel sector as "two steps forward, one step back," emphasizing the need to increase capacity utilization rates, which are currently below 70%. He indicated that the rise in steel consumption has made Turkey a target for countries experiencing a decline in local consumption, highlighting that domestic consumption is crucial for the growth of the Turkish steel sector. Following Yayan, Anıl Akalın, Director of Environmental Markets | New Business Development at Redshaw Advisors, presented on CBAM, stating that Turkey's steel exports to the EU could decrease by 2-3% by 2032. He projected that costs arising from CBAM could reach €771 million in 2026 and €2.5 billion by 2032, with Turkey's steel exports facing additional costs equivalent to 11% of product prices in 2026.
In the second session, moderated by Ayça Özbay, Global Scrap Market Analyst at SteelOrbis, Tao Bai, General Manager of EMR Group, discussed the state of the scrap market. He noted that increased taxes have boosted capacity utilization rates, scrap demand, and purchasing power in the US, while the uncertainty created by these taxes has slowed down the US manufacturing industry and, consequently, scrap production. Commenting on potential scrap export ban rumors in the EU, Cinzia Vezzosi, President of ASSOFERMET, warned that such a ban could lead to the closure of many recycling companies and complicate economic relations with Turkey, the largest scrap importer in the EU. Regarding local scrap capacity in Turkey, Koray Günay, Purchasing Director at Çolakoğlu Metalurji, mentioned that if improvements are seen in the Turkish economy in the coming years, the construction sector will recover, thus increasing the availability of scrap.
In the third session, Kazuo Mike Fujisawa, Global Business Development Manager at JFE Steel Corporation, shared insights on the current landscape and expectations for the East Asian steel sector. He noted that visible final product consumption has weakened in countries like China, Japan, and South Korea over the past five years, while growth continues in ASEAN countries and India. He pointed out that while steel demand is declining in China, economic growth forecasts for countries such as India, Vietnam, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, along with the potential revival of the European market, could support a recovery in demand. Following Fujisawa, Luciano Giua, Economist and Policy Analyst at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), stated that the European steel market is facing stagnant demand, low prices, and decreasing production, with global overcapacity spiraling out of control, particularly due to increasing export flows from China and the ASEAN region.
In the fourth session, Tansu Yeğen, Vice President and Technology Specialist at Amplitude, presented on digital transformation and artificial intelligence technology, discussing AI applications in the steel sector. According to Yeğen, the use of AI could provide opportunities such as a 10-15% reduction in carbon emissions, 15-20% energy optimization, and improvements in production planning.
In the final session, Economist Prof. Dr. Emre Alkin shared the latest status of the Turkish and global economy and his expectations for 2026 in his presentation titled "Economic Developments in Turkey and the World."