BIMCO reports Suez Canal container capacity surpasses 50% of pre-crisis levels, with full recovery expected by Q1 2027.
According to the latest data from BIMCO, weekly container ship capacity transiting the Suez Canal averaged 753,000 TEU during the first two weeks of October 2026, compared with 1.457 million TEU during the same period in 2023. This marks the first time since the onset of the Red Sea crisis that weekly container capacity through the Suez Canal has surpassed 50% of pre-crisis levels.
The significance of this shift becomes more apparent when viewed against the trajectory of the past three years. At the end of 2023, the Red Sea situation prompted a large-scale rerouting of container vessels around the Cape of Good Hope. By the final week of 2023, weekly container ship capacity through the Suez Canal had fallen to approximately 330,000 TEU. From February 2024 through mid-2026, weekly capacity averaged only around 141,000 TEU - equivalent to just 11% of the comparable 2023 level. The current reading of 753,000 TEU represents a decisive return above the 50% threshold.
In terms of vessel numbers, MB Shipbrokers reports that 72 container ships transited the Suez Canal in the most recent week, up from a four-week average of 57 vessels per week.
Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd led the initial resumption of Suez routing on selected Asia-Mediterranean services in July of this year, with further route adjustments following in subsequent months. BIMCO data indicates that since early July, 16 service announcements have been made regarding route realignment, spanning the Gemini Cooperation, Ocean Alliance, Premier Alliance, and MSC. All four major alliances now operate regular westbound Asia-to-Northern Europe services via the Suez Canal.
ONE and HMM are identified as the next carriers likely to join the return. According to Linerlytica, the major carriers yet to complete the transition at that point would be primarily Evergreen, Yang Ming, and Zim.
Linerlytica projects that a full resumption of Suez routing could materialize in the first quarter of 2027. The number of container vessels of 4,000 TEU and above transiting the Red Sea weekly has already exceeded 50, and the pace of route restoration continues to accelerate.
The implications for the global container market are becoming increasingly apparent. BIMCO estimates that the extended Cape of Good Hope diversions added approximately 10% to global container ship demand. As vessels progressively return to Suez routing, that incremental demand is dissipating. In practical terms, the same pool of vessels that previously covered longer distances around Africa is now increasingly transiting Suez, and effective capacity will be released accordingly. However, recent congestion at Asian ports may offset some of this effect, and the ultimate impact on supply-demand dynamics and freight rates warrants continued observation.
Suez Canal throughput remains below pre-crisis norms, but the recovery from 11% to over 50% represents a material shift in the market's trajectory. Should major carriers complete their return in Q1 2027 as projected, voyage distances, vessel utilization, and effective capacity on Asia-Europe trades could undergo another significant round of adjustment.