Retailers Brace for Continued Decline in Import Cargo

The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts that import volumes will continue to decline through at least the first quarter of 2026, despite expectations for record holiday sales. The trade group cites uncertainty over tariffs and trade policy as the primary factors influencing this trend, according to Fort Lauderdale's Maritime Executive.

NRF Vice President Jonathan Gold stated that while stores are well-stocked for the holiday season, the uncertainty surrounding trade policy casts a shadow over the outlook for 2026.

The federation noted that imports rose by 3.7 percent in the first half of 2025 as retailers expedited shipments ahead of anticipated tariff increases. Efforts by the administration to ease tariffs on food products and negotiate agreements with China helped moderate the decline in late 2025.

NRF projects that holiday sales will exceed US$1 trillion for the first time, representing an increase of between 3.7 and 4.2 percent from 2024. However, import volumes remain below last year's levels, with the fourth quarter forecast at 5.86 million TEU, down 10 percent from 2024.

Ben Hackett, Founder of Hackett Associates, indicated that rising tariffs are weakening cargo demand, and this impact is expected to persist into the first half of 2026.

Global Port Tracker anticipates December imports will reach 1.88 million TEU, marking the slowest month of 2025 and a decline of 12 percent from December 2024. The full-year forecast stands at 25.2 million TEU, a decrease of 1.4 percent from 2024.

NRF expects January imports to hit two million TEU, marking the first month-on-month increase in six months, although this figure remains 10.3 percent lower year-over-year. February is projected at 1.86 million TEU, March at 1.79 million TEU, and April at 1.97 million TEU, all reflecting declines compared to 2025. The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to be more than 12 percent lower than the same period a year earlier.