Middle East oil exports exceed pre-war levels, but tanker operations in the Strait of Hormuz face challenges, with VLCC rates nearing $1.4 million.
Despite oil exports from the Middle East surpassing pre-war levels, pressure on tanker transportation in the Strait of Hormuz continues. According to a Reuters analysis dated October 22, daily freight rates for VLCC tankers are approaching $1.4 million, while war risk insurance has reached 10% of the value of the cargo being transported. Last week, 12 ship attacks were reported in the region.
In an analysis by Reuters author Ron Bousso on October 22, 2026, it was noted that the recovery in Middle Eastern oil exports does not mean that maritime transportation in the region has normalized.
According to Kpler data, daily crude oil exports from the Middle East reached an average of 17.3 million barrels in October. This figure surpassed September's 16.4 million barrels and the pre-war average of 16.9 million barrels.
Oil transit through Hormuz increased to 11.7 million barrels.
Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz reached a daily average of 11.7 million barrels in October. In September, this amount was 9.75 million barrels.
Thus, the amount of oil passing through the strait has risen to approximately 82% of pre-war levels.
According to Reuters, one of the main reasons for the increase is the tanker convoys using routes close to the Omani coast under the protection of the U.S. Navy.
Vessel tracking data shows that approximately one-third of the transits in the strait continue to be carried out via the northern route controlled by Iran.
12 attacks reported in one week.
Despite the recovery in oil shipments, attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz are increasing.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) announced that it received reports of 12 attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz last week.
This figure is considered the highest weekly number of attacks recorded by the agency.
UKMTO pointed out that the actual number could be higher due to some ship operators not reporting attacks for commercial or security reasons.
VLCC tankers' daily freight at $1.4 million.
VLCC tankers carrying approximately 2 million barrels of crude oil from the Middle East to China have daily freight rates around $1.4 million.
This figure is more than 12 times the pre-war levels.
The cost of tanker insurance has also risen significantly. According to Reuters, insurance costs accounted for about 3% of the value of the oil being transported before the war, while currently, it has reached 10%.
Due to rising transportation costs, Saudi Aramco and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) have started selling oil to some customers in China and India on a delivered basis.
This practice differs from the traditional trade method where oil is sold at the loading port.
Saudi Arabia's Red Sea exports have recovered.
The acceleration of exports from Saudi Arabia's Yanbu Port on the Red Sea has also played a role in the increase of oil shipments in the Middle East.
Shipments that were disrupted due to an attack on the oil pipeline in September rose to an average of 3 million barrels per day in October.
Although this amount remains below the wartime peak of 4.3 million barrels per day reached in June, it indicates a faster-than-expected recovery.
Brent oil rises to $110.
Despite the increase in oil shipments, the price of Brent crude oil has risen to approximately $110 per barrel, reaching its highest level since May.
In the Reuters analysis, it was assessed that the rise in prices reflects concerns about the sustainability of shipments in the event of renewed intensification of conflicts in the region, rather than the current oil supply.
The uncertainty in the oil market is also reflected in derivative transactions. According to HiLo Analytics data, the daily trading volume of ICE Brent oil options exceeded 1 million contracts on Tuesday, setting a record.
The Reuters analysis stated that oil producers and tanker operators have managed to maintain exports thanks to new transportation methods, but this system is dependent on military protection, high insurance costs, multi-vessel transfer operations, and high freight costs.
Source: SeaNews Türkiye
