The International Air Transport Association has lowered its forecast for global air cargo growth this year to just 0.2 per cent, citing disruptions from the Middle East conflict, reported LA's Global Trade Magazine.

Freight volumes are expected to reach 71.7 million tonnes in 2026, down from the 2.6 per cent growth projected in March. Demand fell 4.8 per cent year-on-year in March but rebounded 4 per cent in April. Over the first four months, cargo tonne kilometres rose 3.6 per cent compared with 2025.

Despite weaker demand, cargo revenue is forecast to climb to US$162 billion, up 7.2 per cent from US$151 billion last year. Yields are expected to rise 6.5 per cent after three years of decline, driven by airlines recovering higher fuel costs.

Jet fuel remains a major concern. Costs are projected to jump nearly 40 per cent to $350 billion in 2026 from $252 billion in 2025. Total airline profits are expected to shrink to $23 billion from $45 billion last year.

IATA said disruptions at Middle Eastern hubs have created opportunities for Asia-based carriers, particularly on Europe-Asia lanes. However, tighter customs rules in Europe could weigh on e-commerce volumes.

Latin American cargo markets may soften gradually, while Middle Eastern markets remain under strain from reduced capacity and traffic reallocation. IATA stated that near-term recovery will depend more on pricing than a rapid rebound in volumes.