Global container growth slows to 2.1%, hindered by US and EU import declines, despite gains in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
Global container volume growth has fallen to its weakest pace since February, with a year-over-year increase of just 2.1%, according to reports from New York's Journal of Commerce. This slowdown is largely attributed to declining imports in the US and Europe, which have offset rising trade in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America.
Container Trades Statistics indicate that volumes in the first ten months of 2025 were up 4.4% compared to the previous year. Simon Heaney from Drewry noted that this slowdown has pulled the 12-month rolling average down to its lowest level in 20 months.
Heaney pointed out that regional trade growth is becoming increasingly asymmetric, with the Global South outpacing Western economies. North American imports fell by 6.7% in October, while Asia-to-Europe exports decreased by 3% year on year.
US imports continue to be the largest drag on growth, with projections indicating a 1.4% decline for 2025, resulting in an estimated total of 25.2 million TEU. Moody's Ratings has warned that US imports in 2026 could remain flat or decrease by up to 2% compared to this year.
BIMCO forecasts that global container volumes will expand by 2.5% to 3.5% in 2026, while volumes for 2025 are expected to finish up by 4.5% to 5.5% from 2024.
Analyst John McCown noted that only two other periods have experienced declines of this magnitude: during the 2008-09 financial crisis and in the spring of 2020 amid the pandemic. He cautioned that 2026 could potentially be the worst year for volume growth he has observed.
