Geopolitical disruption and structural fleet growth are reshaping the global container shipping market, with AIS data showing severe disruption near the Strait of Hormuz and carriers pressing ahead with expansion plans, reported LA's Global Trade Magazine.

AIS-supported vessel tracking recorded unprecedented disruption in March, with 65 container ships losing or manipulating signals near the Strait of Hormuz. As of March 10, 48 ships west of the Strait were operating with AIS turned off or spoofed positions, complicating monitoring and risk assessment.

Operational data shows no container ships have exited the Persian Gulf since March 5, when a sub-3,000 TEU vessel was last recorded transiting outward. Some 131 ships remain stranded west of the Strait, while over 1,000 merchant vessels are concentrated in the region. Among affected ships, the ONE Majesty, a 6,700 TEU vessel, was struck while anchored.

Despite the conflict, charter demand remains strong. Rates are holding firm across vessel sizes, with carriers securing multi-year contracts of two to five years. The availability of open tonnage is limited, especially for larger ships, though the expected boost from Gulf disruption has not fully materialized as carriers suspend or shorten services.

Containership idling is at historic lows. Alphaliner recorded 90 idle ships, equal to 0.7 percent of the global fleet. At least 73 ships, representing nearly 400,000 TEU, are diverted or sheltered due to the conflict. Congestion at alternative ports such as Sohar, Jeddah, and Mersin is tightening supply further.

Structural fleet growth continues. The global fully cellular fleet has surpassed 6,700 vessels, reaching 33.6 million TEU. MSC is nearing 1,000 ships and 7.26 million TEU, equal to 21.5 percent of global capacity. Evergreen, CMA CGM, and COSCO all have order books exceeding 39 percent of their fleets, while Wan Hai stands at 73 percent. Weekly deployed capacity on the Far East-Europe trade lane has set a record at more than 530,000 TEU.