Rail freight between China and the EU fell 14.1% in 2025, driven by border closures and competition from maritime transport.
Rail freight volumes between China and the European Union dropped sharply in 2025, falling 14.1 per cent year-on-year to 310,579 TEU, according to European Rail Alliance data reported by Paris-based Upply Market Insights.
The decline was steepest from Europe to China, where traffic collapsed to 38,422 TEU, down 22.7 per cent after a 26.7 per cent fall in 2024. China-Europe flows also fell 17.7 per cent to 272,157 TEU.
Analysts said the downturn was driven by border closures in Poland following Russian drone incursions and by rail's loss of competitiveness against maritime transport, where rates eased after Red Sea disruptions subsided.
China's exports to the EU rose 8.4 per cent in value to US$560 billion in 2025, but imports from Europe fell 0.5 per cent to US$268.2 billion, underscoring weak demand for west-east rail freight.
The China-Poland corridor accounted for 94 per cent of flows, totalling 255,869 TEU, down 12.7 per cent. Traffic to Germany plunged 43 per cent to 13,552 TEU, while volumes to Belgium, the Netherlands, and Hungary collapsed by up to 97 per cent.
Machinery and electrical equipment remained the largest export categories, but their share fell to 25 per cent of volumes. Furniture shipments rose 16.5 per cent to 23,794 TEU, overtaking textiles and footwear, which dropped 32.6 per cent.
West-east traffic hit a historic low, with Germany-China flows down 25 per cent to 25,418 TEU. Vehicle shipments fell 71 per cent to 2,476 TEU. Poland-China traffic rose 30 per cent to 11,224 TEU.
Overall China Railway Express volumes, including Russia and non-EU Europe, reached 2.05 million TEU, down 1.3 per cent. Train numbers rose 3.2 per cent to 20,022, with departures from China up 14.4 per cent.
The outlook for 2026 remains challenging. Chinese exports are expected to grow, aided by e-commerce platforms expanding logistics hubs in Europe, but weak European demand, maritime competition, and geopolitical risks continue to weigh on rail freight. Growth drivers are seen mainly in Central Asia, where flows rose 27.7 per cent in 2025.
