Bulgaria: Port of Varna to post modest cargo throughput increase in 2015

We are predicting modest cargo throughput at the port of Varna in 2015. Growth in tonnage will be slower relative to last year, reflecting a general deceleration of Bulgaria’s foreign trade growth. Box traffic growth will also be subdued, but a little stronger than last year, in part because domestic consumption remains the main driver of the economy, and tends to require a high proportion of containerised imports.No party or coalition won a clear majority in the October 5 2014 parliamentary elections. A month after the poll it appeared that former Prime Minister Boiko Borisov would preside over a minority government formed by his centre-right GERB party and the Reformist Bloc, an alliance of five smaller parties, also of the centre-right. Pending final coalition talks the outlook remained uncertain. Uncertainty has been weighing down on the country’s modest recovery. BMI has trimmed its GDP growth forecast for Bulgaria to 1.9% in 2015 and 2.9% in 2016 (down from 2.5% and 3.2% respectively). This also reflects weaker than expected demand for exports from the eurozone and pressure on household spending, which for the moment remains the main motor of growth.Headline Industry Data* 2015 port of Varna tonnage throughput forecast to grow 3.8% to 17.086mn tonnes; over the medium-term (to 2019) we project an average annual increase of 4.2%.* 2015 port of Varna container throughput forecast to grow 3.0% to 139,060TEUs; over the medium-term we project a 3.9% average annual increase.* 2014 total trade growth forecast at 2.5%, down from an estimated 4.9% in 2014.Key Industry TrendsWork Underway To Improve Bulgarian Sector O f River Danube: In October 2014 Nikolina Angelkova, Bulgaria’s interim minister of transport, IT, and communications, said that a newly-built Danube River information centre, based in the city of Ruse, would start operating within a month and a half.Source: Business Monitor International