GLOBAL oil demand is expected to grow nearly 20 per cent in the next 20-years, driven by non-OECD countries with China leading the way
Box growth likely as non-OECD countries come to dominate oil demand
GLOBAL oil demand is expected to grow nearly 20 per cent in the next 20-years, driven by non-OECD countries with China leading the way, followed by India and the Middle East, according to BP's annual Energy Outlook report.
Demand in South and Central America is to rise by some two million barrels per day, plus demand in the former Soviet Union, Africa and other Asian countries to increase consumption by a total of four million barrels per day, says London's Tanker Operator.
The increase, which will be reflected in the rise of container traffic, will be driven by the transport and petrochemical sectors. Non-OECD demand is to increase 22 million barrels per day between 2010-2030, though non-OPEC oil - and oil in general - is expected to lose market share in face of alternate energy sources, said the report.
The focus of future non-OPEC oil production increases is very much in the Americas, with US shale oil, Canadian oil sands and Brazilian deepwater prospects all highly promising, according to leading London broker EA Gibson, who analysed the BP report.
Thus, the implications are that there will be more oil traded, but this will be focused on growing trends in non-OECD countries and weakening trends in the OECD, said Mr Gibson.
"So looking at the much longer term, we are not running out of oil and tanker trades will increase. However, trade patterns are likely to look very different with the shift from west to east accelerating," Mr Gibson said.
