Maritime shock in LNG: Asian spot price is at the highest level in four months The security crisis in Hormuz and the Red Sea was also reflected in the
Maritime shock in LNG: Asian spot price is at the highest level in four months
The security crisis in Hormuz and the Red Sea was also reflected in the liquefied natural gas market. The spot LNG price for September delivery to Northeast Asia increased from $20.10 to $22/mmBtu in a week, reaching the highest level in four months.
Asian spot LNG prices rose for the fifth consecutive week. The average price for September delivery of LNG to Northeast Asia was calculated as 22 dollars/mmBtu. The previous week the price was at $20.10. The increase was due to low ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the risk of attacks spreading in the Red Sea, and concerns about the deliverability of cargo.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the main sea lanes through which approximately one-fifth of global LNG trade passes under normal conditions. A significant portion of the cargo originating from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates uses this route. Prolonged disruption in the strait could limit not only the passage of ships but also the storage capacity and ability of producers to make new shipments.
Kpler predicts that Qatar's 2026 LNG exports may remain below 27 million tons if the crisis is prolonged. Qatar's 2025 exports were approximately 80 million tons. This figure is not a realized result; A rather harsh scenario based on the assumption of a long-term crisis.
Gas prices in Europe are also rising due to the Hormuz crisis, hot weather, low storage rates and rising demand from Asia. If Asian prices remain above Europe, it may cause ships carrying spot LNG to turn to Asian terminals that offer higher prices.
The possible impact for Türkiye can be seen especially on the price and delivery security of LNG to be purchased from the spot market. However, the increase in the international spot price does not mean that it will be reflected in the natural gas price in Turkey at the same rate and at the same time. Long-term contracts, the amount of gas in storage, pipeline supply and public price policy will determine the outcome.
There is no direct and short sea alternative that LNG carriers can use other than Hormuz. If a ship originating from Qatar cannot pass through Hormuz, the problem is not just a few days' delay in the route; It means that the load cannot leave the terminal. Therefore, the risk of a strait in the LNG market may have sharper consequences than in the oil market.
Source: SeaNews Türkiye
