Shippers in Asia-Pacific foresee freight demand growth in H2 2026, but geopolitical issues and rising rates will keep volatility high.
Shippers across Asia-Pacific expect freight demand to grow in the second half of 2026, but geopolitical uncertainty, rising rates, and persistent disruption mean volatility will continue, reported London's Air Cargo Week.
Dimerco's survey found that 71 percent of shippers anticipate demand growth, while 92 percent reported higher freight rates over the past year, and 84 percent experienced shipment delays at least monthly. Ocean freight remains under the greatest pressure, driving higher costs and tighter air freight capacity.
The report urges shippers to adopt resilient strategies, including multimodal options, alternative routes, stronger forecasting, and closer collaboration with logistics providers. 'H2 2026 is likely to reward shippers that build optionality before they need it,' Dimerco said.
Geopolitical disruption ranked as the leading factor shaping outlooks, cited by 33 percent of respondents, ahead of demand growth at 31 percent and economic conditions at 20 percent. Asia-North America was the most frequently cited lane for both air and ocean users, followed by Asia-Europe.
Delays are now routine, with 84 percent reporting monthly shipment delays and one quarter experiencing delays weekly or more. Geopolitical disruption was the main trigger for strategy changes, followed by port congestion and customs delays.
Ocean freight faces heavier burdens, with 69 percent citing rate volatility, 55 percent vessel schedule reliability, and 51 percent geopolitical disruption. Half of the respondents said reliable capacity declined in the past six months. Air freight challenges include rate volatility at 56 percent, schedule reliability at 47 percent, and capacity constraints at 33 percent.
Provider selection is driven by both cost and execution. Sixty-five percent cited price as a top factor, while 69 percent highlighted schedule reliability and transit-time predictability. Forty-two percent switched primary logistics providers in the past year, mainly due to pricing and service reliability.
Dimerco recommends that shippers adopt rules-based freight planning, including rolling forecasts, mode-switch thresholds, pre-qualified gateways, customs readiness, and forwarder scorecards tracking visibility, recovery, and capacity fulfillment alongside price.
